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Tuesday, April 04, 2006 

Kelley Falling Behind

The delegate counts in the gubernatorial race are of some dispute, but Checks and Balances is reporting surprising new numbers.

C&B's numbers are Hatch 207.5, Lourey 203, Kelley 117.

It doesn't appear that Lourey's support runs so much more strongly than Kelley's, so either Kelley's delegate strategy is weak (C&B's position) or the numbers are bad. I'm expecting to hear someone, probably MNCR, argue the latter. Two things are clear; if accurate, this count is a disaster for the Kelley campaign, which has promised to abide by the endorsement, and a boon for the Lourey campaign, which appears to have a strong shot at beating Hatch for the endorsement.

Bumped from the comments:

MNCR:
...The reason C&B can't report Kelley's numbers is because the Kelley campaign wouldn't give them to Shawn Towle. They flat out refused. Towle wants to be a journalist, and wants C&B to be a primary source for solid information, but will not submit his work to peer review and will not admit when there are holes in his data or bias in his views.

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I think the questions is - does anyone really believe any of the numbers presented?

C&B only has as much creditibility as we give them - I personally give them slim to none and am waiting to see what happens on the 1st ballot. The only thing I know for sure is where my vote is going.

If checksandbalances, aka Shawn Towle, were the least bit credible comments would be allowed to be posted on-line. C&B is a mushroom in the basement that only survives due to lack of light.

Towle has made some unflattering, conclusory comments about the Kelley campaign in the past. I suspect he has other motives.

Kelley's campaign reported that before last weekend's conventions, Kelley had 131 delegates. Importantly, his numbers were "hard," i.e. counted from subcaucuses that included his name. I find it hard to believe that after last weekend, Kelley actually lost delegates. And I concede that the Kelley campaign has reason to spin this. But the campaign cannot outright lie, which leads me to believe the campaign is telling the truth. After all, how can you even stretch the truth on this one when you are counting delegates from named subcaucuses?

Really - you're quoting Shawn Towle as your source for facts? His reports or his rumors are clearly biased - even someone that agrees with him on who would make a better Governor can see through his * * * * .

You're darned right I'll comment on C&B, though I'm happy to see I've been beaten to the punch. The point that Lourey's number according to C&B is so much higher should be a clear tip-off that something's wrong. Minntelect makes the point correctly.

The reason C&B can't report Kelley's numbers is because the Kelley campaign wouldn't give them to Shawn Towle. They flat out refused. Towle wants to be a journalist, and wants C&B to be a primary source for solid information, but will not submit his work to peer review and will not admit when there are holes in his data or bias in his views.

i have been to some of these conventions. suburban, urban AND rural. i think both kelley and lourey are out working hatch but then agian the should be he is the favorite. I think becky and steve are porably close one interesing onbservation is that much of becky's support is a combo of anti Hatch/dont know steve kelley. i was surprised at how weak some of her support is. fyi I have entered th blogging world..check out my view at http://meadow-party-politics.blogspot.com/

Molly Gate speaks of seeing through ****

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