North Star Politics

It is obvious that in the past four years there have been huge DFL gains across the state. After 2002, the House had an 81-52 Republican majority, while the Senate had a 35-32 DFL majority. Of course, the House is now 85-49 for the DFL and the Senate is 44-23. There are a lot of reasons for this, but one of the most important is the realignment of some formerly reliable GOP areas to DFL control. Two of these areas are the western metro area and Southeastern Minnesota.

West Metro

After the 2002 election (the first cycle after redistricting), the West Metro area (which I’m defining as SDs 41-45) had 8 Republican House members and 2 DFL House members, as well as 3 GOP Senators and 2 DFL Senators. That’s a total delegation of 11 GOP and 4 DFL. In that year, the average GOP margin of victory was 22.26%, while the average DFL margin was 18.01%. This was not an area that looked great for the DFL; much of the area is fairly comfortable and fiscally conservative. The 2002 numbers:

	Winner	Party	%age	Loser	Party	%age	Margin
41A	Ron Erhardt	GOP	64.56%	Deb James	DFL	35.29%	29.27%
41B	Alice Seagren	GOP	63.65%	Kurt Laughinghouse	DFL	36.24%	27.41%
41	Geoff Michel	GOP	56.02%	Marilyn McKnight	DFL	33.31%	22.71%
42A	Peter Adolphson	GOP	52.36%	Dave Larson	DFL	34.12%	18.24%
42B	Erik Paulson	GOP	71.95%	Ray Daniels	DFL	27.96%	43.99%
42	David Hann	GOP	49.19%	Larry Piumbroeck	DFL	20.64%	28.55%
43A	Jeff Johnson	GOP	61.74%	Sheryl Frieman	DFL	38.21%	23.53%
43B	Ron Abrams	GOP	60.26%	Wes Lindstrom	DFL	39.62%	20.64%
43	David Gaither	GOP	54.18%	Harold Lerner	DFL	34.36%	19.82%
44A	Jim Rhodes	GOP	48.72%	Betty Folliard	DFL	46.88%	1.84%
44B	Ron Latz	DFL	54.85%	Lisa Peilen	GOP	41.18%	13.67%
44	Steve Kelley	DFL	59.06%	Daniel Freeman	GOP	35.16%	23.90%
45A	Lynne Osterman	GOP	54.38%	Mark Thompson	DFL	45.49%	8.89%
45B	Lyndon Carlson	DFL	57.53%	Mike Barnett	GOP	42.37%	15.16%
45	Ann Rest	DFL	59.61%	Rebekah Adams	GOP	40.29%	19.32%

As you may know, this is an area that today looks very different. After 2006, there are 4 GOP House members and 6 DFLers. That's DFL +4 House seats. There are now 2 GOP Senators and 3 DFLers. That's DFL +1 Senate seat. That means the delegation is now 6 GOP and 9 DFL, +5 DFL seats. In a closely divided Legislature, that's a big change. Here are the 2006 numbers:

	Winner	Party	%age	Loser	Party	%age	Margin
41A	Ron Erhardt	GOP	59.51%	Jeff Rich	DFL	40.37%	19.14%
41B	Neil Peterson	GOP	53.34%	Paul Rosenthal	DFL	46.53%	6.81%
41	Geoff Michel	GOP	56.10%	Andrew Borene	DFL	29.44%	26.66%
42A	Maria Ruud	DFL	55.01%	Bill Cullen	GOP	44.90%	10.11%
42B	Erik Paulson	GOP	64.04%	Rob Boyd	DFL	35.87%	28.17%
42	David Hann	GOP	51.77%	Carol Bomben	DFL	48.15%	3.62%
43A	Sarah Anderson	GOP	52.54%	Sandy Hewitt	DFL	47.37%	5.17%
43B	John Benson	DFL	53.92%	Dave Johnson	GOP	46.01%	7.91%
43	Terri Bonoff	DFL	51.93%	Judy Johnson	GOP	47.96%	3.97%
44A	Steve Simon	DFL	70.21%	Jason Van Buren	GOP	29.60%	40.61%
44B	Ryan Winkler	DFL	69.29%	John Palmatier	GOP	30.50%	38.79%
44	Ron Latz	DFL	68.08%	Dave Carlson	GOP	31.57%	36.51%
45A	Sandra Peterson	DFL	57.30%	Sarah Durenberger	GOP	42.58%	14.72%
45B	Lyndon Carlson	DFL	64.62%	Gregg Prest	GOP	35.25%	29.37%
45	Ann Rest	DFL	64.27%	Derek Brigham	GOP	35.59%	28.68%

There were other signs of a major DFL realignment this year; the average GOP margin of victory in 2006 was 14.93% (-7.33% from 2002) and the average DFL margin was 23.41% (+5.40% from 2002). Overall, some very nice trends in this area.

Southeastern Minnesota

After 2002 in SE Minnesota (which I'll define as SDs 27-31), there were 9 Republican House members and one DFL House member. There were 3 GOP Senators (counting Sen. Sheila Kiscaden, who was caucusing with the GOP) and 2 DFL Senators, one of whom, Sen. Dan Sparks, had won by less than a dozen votes. The average GOP margin of victory was 19.07%, the average DFL margin 11.70%. This part of the state was traditionally one of the most reliably Republican before 2004. Here are the numbers:

	Winner	Party	%age	Loser	Party	%age	Margin
27A	Dan Dorman	GOP	57.37%	Allan Halvorsen	DFL	42.57%	14.80%
27B	Jeff Anderson	GOP	51.20%	Jeanne Poppe	DFL	48.72%	2.48%
27	Dan Sparks	DFL	45.54%	Grace Schwab	GOP	45.52%	0.02%
28A	Jerry Dempsey	GOP	56.96%	Sandy Wollschlager	DFL	42.97%	13.99%
28B	Steve Sviggum	GOP	66.11%	Scott Metcalf	DFL	33.81%	32.30%
28	Steve Murphy	DFL	52.42%	Gary Iocco	GOP	47.48%	4.94%
29A	Randy Demmer	GOP	53.14%	Rodney Peterson	DFL	35.14%	18.00%
29B	Fran Bradley	GOP	67.64%	Paul Munnis	DFL	32.18%	35.46%
29	Dave Senjem	GOP	57.04%	Mike Tupper	DFL	29.02%	28.02%
30A	Carla Nelson	GOP	39.77%	Tina Liebling	DFL	33.15%	6.62%
30B	Bill Kuisle	GOP	70.81%	Eric Starnes	DFL	29.04%	41.77%
30	Sheila Kiscaden	I/GOP	41.56%	Rich Wright	DFL	19.32%	22.24%
31A	Gene Pelowski	DFL	64.97%	Justin Costello	GOP	34.82%	30.15%
31B	Greg Davids	GOP	53.45%	Al Hein	DFL	46.43%	7.02%
31	Bob Kierlin	GOP	53.02%	Sharon Ropes	DFL	46.91%	6.11%

After this year's elections, there will be 8 DFL and 2 GOP House members - that's +7 DFL. There will also be 4 DFL Senators and 1 GOP Senator from those SDs, +2 DFL. In the House, four of the DFL pickups came from beating incumbents (27B, 30A, 30B, and 31B) while the other three (27A, 28A, and 29B) came in open seats. Both of the Senate pickups (30 and 31) came in open seats. Here are those numbers:

	Winner	Party	%age	Loser	Party	%age	Margin
27A	Robin Brown	DFL	50.78%	Matt Benda	GOP	49.10%	1.68%
27B	Jeanne Poppe	DFL	56.33%	Jeff Anderson	GOP	43.53%	12.80%
27	Dan Sparks	DFL	67.72%	George Marin	GOP	32.18%	35.54%
28A	Sandy Wollschlager	DFL	51.36%	Gary Iocco	GOP	48.33%	3.03%
28B	Steve Sviggum	GOP	60.82%	Jeffrey Flaten	DFL	39.05%	21.77%
28	Steve Murphy	DFL	54.26%	Steve Drazkowski	GOP	45.33%	8.93%
29A	Randy Demmer	GOP	57.85%	Wes Urevig	DFL	42.05%	15.80%
29B	Kim Norton	DFL	50.23%	Rich Decker	GOP	49.59%	0.64%
29	Dave Senjem	GOP	55.43%	Rob Broberg	DFL	33.35%	22.08%
30A	Tina Liebling	DFL	52.76%	Carla Nelson	GOP	47.04%	5.72%
30B	Andy Welti	DFL	51.85%	Bill Kuisle	GOP	48.05%	3.80%
30	Ann Lynch	DFL	52.47%	Scott Wright	GOP	47.41%	5.06%
31A	Gene Pelowski	DFL	69.82%	Lewie Reiman	GOP	29.92%	39.90%
31B	Ken Tschumper	DFL	50.01%	Greg Davids	GOP	49.70%	0.31%
31	Sharon Ropes	DFL	46.74%	Brenda Johnson	GOP	35.38%	11.36%

The average GOP margin was 19.88% (+.82% from 2002) and the average DFL margin was 10.21% (-1.49% from 2002). That negative trend for the DFL margin is mostly due to having only one safe incumbent, Rep. Pelowski in 31A. Incidentally, both new Senators and 5 of the 7 DFL House members elected in 2004 or 2006 are women.

Is this a temporary phenomenon or a permanent realignment?