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Saturday, November 11, 2006 

Predictions Wrap-Up

Monday morning I posted some predictions for Tuesday's results. I'm both pleased and disappointed that they were particularly accurate; I made conservative predictions, and DFL/Democratic candidates exceeded my expectations enormously, but unfortunately I was right on our big loss in the state, the governor's race.

I was more or less correct on all of the constitutional officer races except the Anderson/Otto race, and of course the U.S. Senate race. I underestimated Bachmann's margin, I thought the 3rd would be a little closer than it was, and I called the 1st the wrong way.

The predictions for the Legislature were far too conservative. The DFL picked up 2.5x as many seats in the Senate as predicted, and almost 4x as many in the House. The national predictions were similarly conservative; I undercalled the Senate by two seats and the House by (so far) 6 seats.

Overall, not too bad, and as I said, I'm pleased that my predictions were more cautious than the results bore out.

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