North Star Politics

Another Republican Weighs In

2008-08-09T13:34:00.001-07:00

Republican blogger and activist Andy Aplikowski has called his party's presidential nominee, Sen. John McCain of Arizona, "a low life," "a low life scumwad," not a "real man," held that he has "a character flaw and weakness" and perhaps most damning, says he has "no business running the country."

Aplikowski lumps Sen. McCain in with former Sen. John Edwards, whose affair was revealed this week, in applying the above terms to "any man who cheats." Aplikowski perhaps forgets that Sen. McCain is an admitted adulterer, having cheated on his first wife, Carol McCain, with his second wife, Cindy McCain, in 1979 and 1980.

Technorati Tags: John McCain Andy Aplikowski<

3 AM

2008-05-26T01:10:00.000-07:00

It doesn't matter whether the courts allow it - the mere fact that your government believes it has the right to drag you out of your home in the middle of the night, with no due process, is deeply terrifying.

This is why electing a Democratic president in November is so important.

Simple Answers to Simple Questions

2008-05-23T18:36:00.001-07:00

Is Barack Obama Muslim?

No.

Attracting Attention

2008-05-23T18:23:00.000-07:00

One of Andrew Sullivan's readers argues:

I think the Obama campaign has chosen wisely the past week or so, to let Senator Clinton "implode" on her own. And it's obviously beginning to happen. Senator Obama and his campaign have been very hands-off lately with the Clinton campaign, instead focusing their energy on McCain and not letting him or his campaign get away with baseless attacks. So far, he has responded with force, dignity, intelligence, and calmness, and turned from defense to offense admirably and fairly. He is looking more and more presidential every day, and Senator Clinton is looking less so each day. I think the Obama campaign statement today was perfect: it didn't use Wolfson-like venom, but simply used the words "unfortunate" and "has no place in this campaign". Laser-like precision!

What seems more likely to me is that, with the nomination all but sewn up, Sen. Obama doesn't need to battle with Sen. Clinton on a daily basis. Instead, he can (at least appear to) look to the general election with Sen. McCain, and Clinton is forced to make her own headlines. Practically everything that can be said has been said (how many times can she "ramp up" her case that Florida and Michigan should be seated?) and so she's left having to make incendiary statements to make it into the headlines. We think this is massively backfiring, and it would surprise us if a significant number of superdelegates came over to the Obama side in the next day or two.

Technorati Tags: Hillary Clinton Barack Obama

One Heck of an Assumption

2008-05-18T14:37:00.000-07:00

According to an AP article running in the Star Tribune, Sen. John McCain is making a rather significant assumption in the presidential race.

Republican John McCain's game plan for beating Democrat Barack Obama rests on one huge assumption: Despite an unpopular war, an uncertain economy and the GOP's beleaguered status, the country still leans more to the right than to the left.

This kind of strategy lies at the core of why McCain is doomed to fail. It comes down to McCain just not getting it. After eight disastrous years of President Bush and his Republican congressional cronies, Americans have seen quite enough of what qualifies as "conservatism" these days.

This is exactly the kind of thing that Karl Rove believed, up until the very moment that the House and Senate went to the Democrats in 2006. Remember, Rove was so confident that "after the elections, he planned to convene a panel of Republican political scientists--to study just how wrong the polls were."

Rove believing that, even in the face of piles of predictors to the contrary, was defensible - nothing is for sure in elections until all the votes have been counted. But today, McCain's strategy ignores the actual results of the 2006 elections. Even more incredibly, Republicans have lost three House seats in special elections since March 8th of this year, all in solidly red areas (IL-14, LA-06, MS-01). Republican organizations are struggling to raise money, often lagging far behind their Democratic counterparts. Democratic registration has been surging, thanks to the presidential nomination battle. Social wedge issues critical to Republican success - gay rights, reproductive rights, immigration - have fallen by the wayside as the war and the economy dominate the national debate. There is no evidence to suggest that the country currently leans to the right, or has ever leaned to the right, but John McCain persists.

All this isn't only the reason John McCain will not be elected president, it's also the reason he should not be elected president. A man who can't hear the electorate screaming for change is much too out of touch to hold the nation's highest office.

Technorati Tags: John McCain political mood Barack Obama

Kennedy Rushed to Hospital

2008-05-17T09:27:00.000-07:00

News outlets are reporting that Massachusetts Sen. Ted Kennedy has been rushed to a hospital with symptoms of a stroke. We are praying for Sen. Kennedy's health and wish him a full and speedy recovery.

Republicans Brag About Coleman Playing Politics

2008-05-16T12:10:00.000-07:00

In a post on MDE this morning, Republican operative Michael Brodkorb highlighted a passage from a Washington Post blog stating that Norm Coleman was "a terrific politician."

Nothing more clearly highlights the difference between Democrats and Republicans in our state. Republican brag about being good at politics. Democrats stand on their accomplishments.

Technorati Tags: MDE MN-Sen

Elitist Tim Pawlenty Vetoes Minimum Wage

2008-05-15T19:06:00.000-07:00

No surprise here: Gov. Tim Pawlenty vetoed today a wage increase for the state's lowest-earning workers.

At a time of rising energy, materials, and food costs, at a time when health care and other necessities are out of reach for many, our esteemed governor has refused to help those who work for a living. Only the good governor would back a presidential candidate who wants to suspend the gas tax (little or no help to working families) while rejecting a measure to help working families afford gas! (And food, and rent, and health care...)

Pawlenty, of course, makes over $120,000 a year. His would-be running mate, along with his wife, is worth tens of millions of dollars.

Technorati Tags: Tim Pawlenty MN-Gov minimum wage

Franken Hires New Campaign Manager

2008-05-15T18:22:00.000-07:00

As you've no doubt read in the past 10 hours, Al Franken's campaign replaced its campaign manager today. Conservatives, including MDE, take this to mean that Franken's campaign is somehow struggling, that this is a "staff shake-up". You can decide for yourself how Franken's campaign is doing, but as current reported, this seems to be a routine and evolutionary development for a campaign.

Campaign staff, from a campaign manager/campaign chair on down, play much more of a role in what you see and hear from a candidate than most people would realize. Candidates for statewide or federal offices usually have their words written for them, their appearances scheduled by others, their policy packages developed by staff, and so on. All this happens under the direction and leadership of the candidate, of course, but the name on the ballot is rarely intimately involved with the everyday details of the campaign - these are farmed out to staff. There is a fairly small circle of people in the political world who are qualified to hold high-level positions on a major campaign (experience, managerial skill, and political acumen being crucial) and these people are sought after, going from campaign job to campaign job, sometimes moving between elections work and government positions. As with everyone else, these people have their respective strengths and weaknesses, ability and skill sets, and specialties - among which can be getting their candidates through primary seasons.

Now, I don't know anything about Andy Barr, who seems to have been Franken's campaign manager until now, but the fact is that he has cleared the field for Franken (which used to be more competitive, especially with Ciresi having run). This means that the first half of the campaign is complete - Franken has raised piles of money, gotten onto voters' radar screens, and most importantly all but sewn up the nomination, with no primary challenge likely. That's an unqualified victory at this point. If Barr (for whom I can't find much about online) is either inexperienced or a specialist in primaries, he probably isn't the best choice for the next six months. As the Franken campaign pivots to focusing on the general election, it makes sense to bring in new blood, starting at the top.

The campaign's new head, Stephanie Shriock, seems to be the kind of staffer who couldn't be more perfect (at least on paper) if she'd been custom-ordered. She is a Minnesota native (familiarity with the terrain is invaluable), came up in Minnesota campaigns, and is coming off a campaign season in which she pulled off a major upset, having managed Sen. Jon Tester's victory in Montana. That's an awfully good resume.

While the campaign has gone through a rough patch lately, it's hard to make the case that it's anyone's fault but Franken's. The tax debacle is past, and the blame can't be laid on anyone in the campaign except Franken himself. In fact, the campaign's response neutralized the issue much more effectively than could have been. Other aspects of the campaign seem to be running smoothly - fundraising has been steady, and Franken seems to be in good shape for his contest with Sen. Coleman.

While the Republicans would like us to think that Franken is on the ropes, it's just not true. Having to face a well-known and -funded opponent to their slippery, flip-flopping, Bush-loving incumbent, they're getting nervous. It's hard to blame them. But today's news seems to be routine in the life of a campaign, and certainly no need to worry. Especially given that Barr and his co-manager David Benson are both staying with the campaign, I'd tend to believe their assertion that this was always in the cards for the campaign.

Technorati Tags: Al Franken Andy Barr Norm Coleman MN-SEN

$70,000 in Back Taxes

2008-04-29T15:48:00.000-07:00

This could be the end of the Franken campaign.

Technorati Tags: MN-Sen Al Franken Norm Coleman

Blunder of the Century

2008-04-29T10:16:00.000-07:00

After Sen. John McCain made his now-infamous "100 years" statement on Iraq, our reaction was that all the Democratic presidential candidate would need to defeat him would be to burn McCain's words into the voters' minds. The landscape has changed since then, with the economy taking center stage, but the idea remains the same: the American people will not vote for someone who wants us to be in Iraq for a century. In an astute move by the DNC, it made and began airing this ad, which uses audio and video of John McCain's own words. For the GOP, however, this is misleading.

"Clearly, this ad is just another attempt by the DNC to mischaracterize and distort Senator McCain’s positions and statements," Duncan said in a statement. "It is unquestionable that the DNC is deliberately misleading the American people about what Senator McCain actually said. I hope that any network would consider their responsibility to protect the American people from deliberately false and misleading content."

If you take a look at the Hotline article, the RNC threatens to sue the DNC. Now, we aren't lawyers, but we're not clear on exactly how it's against the law to run such an ad, no matter how "misleading" or even outright false it might be. It's called the First Amendment, folks.

Late last night, Josh Marshall picked up on another angle of the story, finding an instance of the AP's having taken the RNC's bait hook, line, and sinker.

Politics has always involved dishonesty, if not outright falsehoods. Both sides are guilty of this, and there's no legal remedy because of the First Amendment, save in cases of actual defamation. What's really amazing about this story is that the RNC is trying to spin the verbatim replaying of John McCain's own words as "false," and trying to scare off the DNC with threats of legal action. No court in the country would enjoin the ad's airing due to its content, and by even raising the issue so publicly the RNC earns free exposure for the ad.

If the GOP is this desperate in April over John McCain's actual, verbatim statements, it's going to be a highly entertaining election season. They'd better find some other way to neutralize this disastrous position, because it's an awfully tough sell to call this ad "misleading" or "false."

UPDATE: BarbinMD at Kos picks it up as well.

Technorati Tags: John McCain 100 years DNC RNC

Local Control

2008-04-28T22:19:00.000-07:00

Some days, wading through muck of political news we go through to find posts to write up, something jumps out. Today, it was an amendment offered by Rep. Marty Seifert to the House education omnibus bill.

Early in a debate that stretched into the night, House members defeated a proposal that would have barred districts from making the school day any shorter than it is this year.

House Minority Leader Marty Seifert, R-Marshall, had tried to tack the timekeeping measure onto the bill. He said the school day is eroding even though students are expected to learn more. The amendment failed 72-59.

We have no idea about the merits of the amendment, but the hypocrisy here is simply overwhelming. The Minnesota GOP's platform includes the statements:

B. Making Minnesota’s education system more effective and efficient by
reducing the federal and state bureaucracies’ control.

and

M. ... and [O]pposing any new state or federal laws which seek to centralize educational authority at the expense of local school boards.

We can't count the number of times we've heard members of the GOP decry state legislation that reduces "local control" in education. Apparently that's only true for DFL-backed proposals.

Technorati Tags: education Marty Seifert

"Help Those Who Cannot Help Themselves"

2008-04-24T14:48:00.000-07:00

AAA: "We have a responsibility to help those who cannot help themselves".

Of course, this statement extends only to Iraq, in which the Iraqi leadership has consistently failed to take responsibility for its own security. Of course, this statement does not apply within our own borders, where AAA's faction thinks the poor, sick, and disabled should be left to rot. And, most obvious of all, our responsibility to help those who cannot help themselves does not extend to his paying the bills for doing so.

Pawlenty Cozies Up to Fat Cats

2008-04-24T13:09:00.001-07:00

Polinaut reports that Tim Pawlenty raises money from Washington insiders, and his wife is delusional.

About 200 Republican bold-faced names crowded into former RNC chairman Ken Mehlman's Georgetown townhouse last night for an event that one attendee said "felt like the kick-off for Pawlenty for Vice President." Officially, the bill was a fundraiser for Pawlenty's gubernatorial re-election. As the Politico's Mike Allen notes, the Republican government-in-exile all came together: former rep/lobbyist Vin Weber, former White House political director Sara Taylor and major McCain advisers/fundraisers Fred Malek and Wayne Berman. Senior Congressional and White House staffers with Minnesota connections were also invited.

To his guests, Mehlman wondered why so many people would show up on a beautiful night in DC to hang with the governor of Minnesota. But then, Mehlman said, with tongue planted in cheek, that he heard the governor's wife call him "45."

"45" -- as in, the next, next president of the United States, after 43's successor -- John McCain (or Mehlman's old Harvard Law School buddy, Barack Obama) will serve as 44.

This after news today that John McCain wouldn't win Minnesota if the election were held today. And, of course, a week or so after the GOP whined about Rep. Walz raising money with Speaker Pelosi. At least that fundraiser was here in Minnesota, and not in swanky Georgetown, DC. And with lobbyists? I just can't believe it.

The voters are turning against Gov. Pawlenty. They soundly rejected Pawlenty's chosen candidate for president on Feb. 5th, and few to the right of Michael Brodkorb are happy about his line-item veto of the bonding bill. All this, of course, in addition to Pawlenty's repeated claims that he would serve out his gubernatorial term.

Tough to say: would you rather see Tim Pawlenty's vice-presidential (and ultimately presidential) ambitions left in the dust by his BFF John McCain, or see him make a liar...out of himself?

UPDATE: Here's the Strib article.

Technorati Tags: Tim Pawlenty John McCain Republican VP MN-Gov

Can't Spell a Name

2008-04-22T13:10:00.000-07:00

If you go to CNN.com right now and mouse over Texas on "The Race So Far", you'll see that CNN has misspelled Barack Obama's first name. Pretty pathetic.

Merry Christmas!

2007-12-25T07:25:00.000-08:00

A very merry Christmas to you and yours!

Possible Ramstad Un-Retirement

2007-12-20T00:35:00.001-08:00

Rep. Jim Ramstad flip-flopping and deciding to run for re-election is big news. His doing so would save the NRCC an enormous amount of money and likely save the seat for the GOP.

Republican leadership is leaning on Ramstad to run, but Ramstad maintains that "he has no plans to run for reelection". The implied caveat, if you read the article, is that he may do so if Congress doesn't act on his mental health parity legislation.

Needless to say, Democratic leadership should make this a top priority once they come back from their holiday recess. It doesn't seem as if Ramstad actually wants to run again; if he did, I don't think that he would have announced his retirement, and the Republicans urging him to change his mind would have prevailed later anyways. On the other hand, all the incentives he's being offered, plus the perception that he left unfinished work in Congress, could be enough to convince him to return.

Ramstad running would be a huge blow to Democrats here in Minnesota. In 2008 we have the chance for practically a clean sweep - beating Sen. Coleman would make Gov. Pawlenty & Lt. Gov. Molnau the only statewide elected officials, and taking Ramstad's seat would make the House delegation 6-2, with only the very conservative 2nd and 6th districts remaining red. As things stand right now, the state GOP and NRCC will be forced to pour resources into the 3rd CD to try to hold onto the seat, resources that cannot be spent on other races. With Rep. Walz running for his first re-election and a tough race shaping up against Sen. Coleman, keeping Republican resources spread thin will be crucial. Further, a close race in CD3 will help in turning out DFLers to vote in the presidential, senate, and local races.

Ramstad remains quite popular in his district, and if he runs his victory is practically assured, all without a significant dedication of resources from outside the district. This is in distinct contrast to Erik Paulsen, the currently leading Republican candidate, whose campaign does not seem to be gaining much steam.

Speaker Pelosi, Sen. Reid: PLEASE put mental health parity legislation on the fast track. Not only is it good policy, it's good politics too.

Technorati Tags: Jim Ramstad Erik Paulsen MN-03 mental health parity

Notta Lotta

2007-12-19T19:53:00.000-08:00

Good riddance.

Technorati Tags: Trent Lott MS-Sen

Ramstad Retirement Rumors Continuing

2007-12-19T19:25:00.001-08:00

Jim Ramstad is still set to retire, but rumors that he will flip-flop are ramping up. Analysis later on tonight.

Technorati Tags: Jim Ramstad MN-03

"A fatter, whiter, balder Michael Vick"

2007-12-17T04:45:00.000-08:00

The Republicans' new wonder boy is starting to wither under the glaring spotlight of national politics. Turns out he may have tried to cover up for his son's hanging of a stray dog back in 1998.

I wonder how his Baptist values justify that.

In an abbreviated primary schedule, this is the kind of thing that may not get caught until too late. Huckabee has every ounce of the momentum in this race. He is clearly going to win Iowa, and at that point it'll be very difficult to stop him from winning the nomination. He is now a close second place nationally, despite increasing resistance from Republicans, and those trendlines aren't going away.

This is the kind of thing that makes me feel good about the Democrats' chances come November. The worst case scenario for the GOP is that Huckabee makes it through primary season before some horrific scandal is unearthed and leaves them with a politically crippled candidate for the general election. Somewhat less damaging for the GOP's chances would be for Huckabee to become bogged down in something before the primaries are over, leaving Romney and Giuliani to duke it out for the right to lose in November. It seems unlikely, however, that a fairly obscure small-state governor will make it to the end of the nomination process without facing scandal of some size; the suddenly losing campaigns are working too hard to dig up the dirt.

Technorati Tags: Mike Huckabee David Huckabee animal cruelty Rudy Giuliani Mitt Romney

Pot, Meet Kettle

2007-12-15T09:37:00.000-08:00

Gov. Tim Pawlenty, the most partisan governor of Minnesota in recent memory, calls Al Gore "too partisan".

Technorati Tags: Tim Pawlenty Al Gore

The CIA Tortures People

2007-12-14T22:46:00.000-08:00

It makes me sick that my country does things like this. I don't care what they may have done.

A Little Progress

2007-12-13T18:57:00.000-08:00

In one state, in one small way, we took a step. Even if it's only really a symbolic one. It's a start.

I'm not necessarily absolutely opposed to the death penalty, but it's clear that the way it's administered in this country is absolutely barbaric. At this point, too many of the arguments that death penalty advocates make are false or at least intellectually dishonest. It's more expensive than life imprisonment, doesn't deter crime, and, of course, is absolutely irreversible.

Kudos to the New Jersey legislature, and to Governor Corzine, who will sign their bill into law.

Technorati Tags: New Jersey death penalty

Catching Hillary

2007-12-13T14:53:00.001-08:00

The news is out today that Rep. Betty McCollum has endorsed Sen. Barack Obama in the presidential race. This adds to the significant split of public figures in Minnesota who have endorsed the candidates:

Congressman Keith Ellison and Minneapolis Mayor R.T. Rybak are also backing Obama. Former Vice President Walter Mondale, St. Paul Mayor Chris Coleman and Minnesota House Speaker Margaret Kelliher are backing New York Senator Hillary Clinton. DFL Congressman Jim Oberstar and Minnesota House Majority Leader Tony Sertich are backing former North Carolina Senator John Edwards. (h/t Polinaut)

It might be a little surprising that McCollum decided against endorsing Sen. Clinton, as McCollum is only the second woman elected to Congress from Minnesota, though of course there are lots of women, as well as female elected officials, supporting Obama.

My view is that relatively high-profile endorsements like McCollum's can significantly damage Sen. Clinton's campaign. One of Clinton's greatest assets so far has been her aura of "inevitability", and when coveted endorsements, especially from women, go elsewhere, it chips away at that. Even though most Iowans may not care what Minnesota elected officials think about the race, things like this add up, especially when influencing the media narratives.

UPDATE: This Kos post is kinda-sorta talking about the same thing.

Technorati Tags: Hillary Clinton Betty McCollum Barack Obama MN-04

Power Liberal, Jr.

2007-12-13T13:38:00.000-08:00

Many congratulations to REW and Smartie of The Power Liberal, who were blessed with their first child, Violet Jane Marty, yesterday.

I have no doubt that the liberal indoctrination will begin shortly.

Happy Thanksgiving!

2007-11-22T09:14:00.000-08:00

A very happy Thanksgiving to you and yours.

Air Traffic

2007-11-15T09:59:00.001-08:00

Bush has nothing new to say about the war, but gosh durnit, he's going to solve air traffic congestion!

Technorati Tags: George W. Bush air traffic

Romney

2007-10-23T06:43:00.000-07:00

Wow...Mitt Romney is an idiot.

Technorati Tags: Mitt Romney Harry Reid

Walz Challengers On Their Own

2007-10-16T21:05:00.000-07:00

Bluestem Prairie catches State Sen. Dick Day, a Republican challenger to Congressman Tim Walz, admitting he expects little help from the NRCC.

This race is rapidly becoming a nightmare for the GOP. Walz would have been tough to beat in any case, but facing a weak crop of poorly funded candidates having little outside help, he will be nearly invulnerable next year. If Walz can't be beaten running for his first re-election, any representative's most perilous, he could be representing southern Minnesota for a long, long time.

Walz beating up on his opponents will free up DFL and DCCC money and energy for the 3rd and 6th districts. Rep. Michele Bachmann and the Republican field in the 3rd would be well-served by finding serious opposition for Walz.

Technorati Tags: Tim Walz Dick Day Michele Bachmann MN-01 MN-03 MN-06

Money on the Mind

2007-10-15T12:26:00.000-07:00

Bob Collins (of Polinaut) apparently believes that everybody is in Washington to make money, and that policy differences are secondary to that singular goal. Of course, he ignores the fact that many members of Congress could make far more in the private sector than they do in public life.

Speaking of money and public life, McMemo (the Star Tribune's new blog) has a post this morning titled Left's money advantage evident in Minnesota. Aside from the GOP's national money woes due its minority status and the loss of the K Street Project, it's important to note that Republican contributors may be more cautious spending their money in Minnesota than in previous cycles, given the state's dramatic tilt to the left over the past four years. Where party leaders and big-dollar donors may have seen an emerging opportunity in the past, it's now hard to avoid seeing signs that the state is ending its flirtation with the Republican Party. If donors do stay away, Minnesota Republicans may have to fight each other for dollars; Sen. Coleman and Rep. Bachmann may find themselves hard-pressed to keep up with challengers, and the non-incumbents in the 1st and 3rd CDs may be unable to raise enough money to run good campaigns.

Technorati Tags: Norm Coleman Michele Bachmann Erik Paulsen Randy Demmer Dick Day Al Franken MN-01 MN-03 MN-06 MN-Sen

Land of Optimism in the Dumps

2007-10-15T11:41:00.000-07:00

The UK Guardian has a striking, must-read piece today on our collective loss of optimism.

America, in short, is in a deep funk. Far from feeling hopeful, it appears fearful of the outside world and despondent about its own future. Not only do most believe tomorrow will be worse than today, they also feel that there is little that can be done about it.

Who should be surprised, after six and a half years of George W. Bush and 12 straight years of a Republican (briefly divided) Congress? The Republicans love to tell us that we can't solve the economic issues that face us, because if the market doesn't take care of it, it can't be done. They love to tell us that we should be scared of the future, because crime will be rampant, God will be banned, the government will take our liberty away, and illegal immigrants will steal America from us. They tell us that we will never be safe, and that around every corner lurk those who want to destroy our way of life.

What does anyone have to look forward to in that world? Yet we, as Democrats, have not presented another vision of the future, one in which we are prosperous, safe, and happy because we have made it so. In 2008 and beyond, we cannot evaluate candidates on policy and issues alone, but rather we must find the leaders who will make us feel that the problems we face are not insurmountable and will inspire us to solve them.

Ramstad Still Retired

2007-10-11T07:13:00.000-07:00

I was skeptical when Eric Black reported yesterday that Rep. Jim Ramstad was considering unretiring, and still skeptical (though somewhat less so) when he reported that a "reliable source" put the odds of such an event at better than 50-50. However, a Strib article from last night has a statement from Ramstad's office that he still has "no plans" on running again.

As it says in the article, Ramstad has left himself a little bit of wiggle room, but he clearly doesn't have much interest in being in the House anymore and it's difficult to imagine what the Republicans could offer him at this point to entice him to stay. In addition, Ramstad's retirement announcement makes a re-election campaign much more difficult; in addition to fighting off the current crop of Republican candidates who might stick around and challenge him in a primary, his fundraising operation would have to be restarted and make up for lost time, and he'd be vulnerable to attacks from the DFL about flip-flopping, a lack of enthusiasm for representing the Third District, etc. Certainly, if he's going to change his mind, he needs to do it very soon, probably within the next week.

Ramstad's un-retirement flip-flop is an interesting possibility, but despite Black's source, it's a very unusual and unlikely move. Don't hold your breath.

Technorati Tags: Jim Ramstad MN-03 NRCC

Hall of Famer Larry Craig

2007-10-07T14:00:00.000-07:00

I couldn't help but laugh when I saw this. Sen. Larry Craig is going to be a member of the Idaho Hall of Fame.

With all seriousness, I think that Craig deserves this; it's a hall of fame, after all, and Craig's certainly the most famous (infamous?) Idahoan in recent memory. The best part of the article, however, is the Republican official:

Kootenai County Republican precinct committeeman Phil Thompson said Idaho Hall of Fame officials should consider at least postponing the induction.
"Maybe in 10 or 15 years we can think of this hall of fame stuff. Now is not the time," he said. "It's a sad day to be a Republican."

A sad day indeed.

Technorati Tags: Larry Craig

Evangelical Third Party

2007-10-06T10:03:00.000-07:00

If James Dobson and his radical evangelical crew get behind an anti-choice minor party candidate in 2008, or if they form an evangelical third party (most likely in a subsequent election), think about what percentage of the vote you'd expect them to get here in Minnesota.

My guess is south of 15%.

Technorati Tags: James Dobson evangelicals

Massachusetts of the Midwest

2007-10-05T10:06:00.000-07:00

MyDD reports that we're potentially "the Massachusetts of the midwest."

Don't tell Massachusetts. Or the GOP, for that matter.

Quick Hits

2007-10-05T09:42:00.000-07:00

Even Republicans can't stand the already much-maligned 2008 RNC logo (warning: not safe for your coffee). The GOP is getting off on just the right foot if they want to take the presidency, wouldn't you say?

Speaking of feet, Sen. Larry Craig is guilty, guilty, guilty, and he's now (if he wasn't before) a liar, since he's going to serve out his term. Don't judge him too harshly, however, since this will help the Dems take his Senate seat next year.

The Republican spin machine is working overtime to make sure you don't realize that Al Franken is outraising Sen. Coleman. (Thanks for the welcome back, MDE!)

President Bush doesn't care about uninsured children, so it's no wonder we haven't heard the words "compassionate conservative" in quite a while.

Fred Thompson, the GOP's great hope for next year...isn't such a big fan of public service. Memo to Fred: a person can get more done in a week in the Senate than most people hope to in their entire lives. I think it's worth someone asking Thompson if he's running for president for the pay bump from senator.

Technorati Tags: Larry Craig Al Franken Norm Coleman SCHIP Fred Thompson

The Return

2007-10-04T11:56:00.000-07:00

As you may have noticed, this January, new posts stopped appearing here at North Star Politics. It wasn’t something that had been planned, but rather the result of a long downslide of motivation and inspiration for this blog. After running the table in the 2006 elections, with a Democratic Congress and a DFL Legislature, NSP felt confident that both Minnesota and the country would soon be back on the right track, and that confidence stole away the motivation to write here.

I was wrong.

Months later, things are little better. Today, our executive remains unchecked, running a failing war in Iraq over the meek objections of a cowering Congress. Today, our state’s priorities remain in the wrong places, with insufficient progress made towards returning this state to its title as “the state that works.” A Democratic Congress and a DFL Legislature are not enough. A Democratic president and a DFL governor won’t be enough. We need not only more but better Democrats in office, and we need to keep up the pressure on a conservative media that slants the public dialogue against progressives. We can’t trust our government to the politicians; every day, however we can, each of us must do our part to push our state and our country towards the progressive, fair, and just future that we know can be realized.

Beginning (again!) today, North Star Politics will be here, pushing for that future.

Enjoy.

Gaertner Considering Gubernatorial Bid

2007-01-05T12:14:00.000-08:00

Ramsey County attorney Susan Gaertner is saying the right things about a 2010 run for governor.

Gaertner will have a tough road to the nomination, but there will be plenty of time for that later...LESS than three and a half years before the convention. Right now, we all need to be focusing on the 2008 races - 2010 is just too far away.

Technorati Tags: Susan Gaertner 2008 MN-Gov

Friday

2007-01-05T12:08:00.000-08:00

I'm watching CSpan. WHY IS CONGRESS IN SESSION ON A FRIDAY?

(Hint: It's the Democrats!)

This bipartisanship thing, by the way, certainly has lasted a long time. Rep. Patrick McHenry (and isn't that a great name?) is already talking about the Democrats as tax-n'-spend liberals.

Technorati Tags: Congress Democrats Hard Work Nancy Pelosi Harry Reid

Democrats in Charge

2007-01-04T09:39:00.000-08:00

It still feels like a dream, but the Democrats are taking over in the House and Senate right now. You can watch.

Seemed like it would never happen, didn't it?

Technorati Tags: Congress

Dayton to Run Again

2007-01-03T09:40:00.000-08:00

You. Have. Got. To. Be. Kidding. Me.

Mark Dayton is thinking of running for governor in 2010. There are second acts in politics, but this one isn't going to happen.

Dayton wasn't a bad senator, but he doesn't have the charisma (or the approval ratings) for another run at elected office. For all of our sakes, he should stay out of the 2010 race. Even so, he has been added to the possible candidates on the right sidebar.

(Via Polinaut)

Technorati Tags: Mark Dayton Tim Pawlenty MN-Gov 2010

Axis of Soros

2007-01-03T07:50:00.000-08:00

Fecke finds his true calling.

Technorati Tags: George Soros Mark Ritchie Michael Brodkorb Karl Rove

Bonilla Defeated in Texas

2006-12-12T21:24:00.000-08:00

The AP has called the Texas 23rd tonight for Democrat Ciro Rodriguez over GOP Rep. Henry Bonilla. Tons of money, the advantage of incumbency, and political experience couldn't save Bonilla from getting beaten in a district he almost won outright on Nov. 7th. One more Democrat to the House - that brings 2006 to +30.

Technorati Tags: Henry Bonilla Ciro Rodriguez TX-23

Olson Booted From His Caucus

2006-12-08T12:41:00.000-08:00

This morning, Rep. Mark Olson, who faces domestic abuse charges from an incident with his wife, was ejected from the GOP House Caucus. The decision by the other members was unanimous. It is now highly unlikely that Olson will remain in the House rather than resigning.

The GOP is not screwing around here, doing everything possible to distance itself from Olson and his (alleged) conduct. As it says in Polinaut's post, House Minority Leader Marty Seifert has said that Rep. Olson should be removed from the Legislature if he's convicted, and the DFL majority will undoubtedly oblige him. I have to say that I've been fairly impressed with the GOP's handling of this matter, though on the other hand it is a little easier when you're dealing with a heavily conservative district.

Technorati Tags: Mark Olson MN House GOP Caucus Marty Seifert

The Pill's Price Rising

2006-12-07T12:52:00.000-08:00

Due to the Congressional Republicans' 2005 Deficit Reduction Act, more than 100 publicly funded clinics in Minnesota are facing more than 10x price hikes in birth control pills.

For poverty? Make birth control more expensive. For unwanted children? Make birth control more expensive. For abortions? Make birth control more expensive. For crime that results from unwanted children born into poverty? Make birth control more expensive. For more people needing welfare? Make birth control more expensive.

Small investments in key programs can save a government many, many times the amount of that initial investment over a course of years. Ensuring that birth control is affordable is one of those investments. This effect of the 2005 DRA is the very definition of penny wise, pound foolish.

Your 21st century Republican Party: compassionate, anti-poverty, anti-crime, pro-life.

Technorati Tags: birth control deficit reduction

"Car Buyer's Bill of Rights"

2006-12-05T20:48:00.000-08:00

Sen.-elect Ron Latz (DFL-St. Louis Park) has made his first issue of his first Senate term...used cars.

Sen.-elect Ron Latz, DFL-St. Louis Park, says he's concerned that consumers can't return used cars. Latz says he's heard complaints from people who realized they couldn't afford car payments, but didn't realize it until they had already bought the car.

Of all the good things that a DFL Legislature will be able to do, this is not high on my list. Latz may be onto something here, as some used car dealers are known to be less than scrupulous, but there are other issues that are owed some urgency. Even if this issue genuinely needs to be addressed, it and others like it cannot be allowed to distract the Governor and Legislature from the issues that truly cannot wait.

Technorati Tags: Ron Latz used cars car returns car buyers bill of rights

Unhappy Decider

2006-12-04T16:46:00.000-08:00

As you know, John Bolton resigned today. What you may not know is that the President is "not happy."

"I accepted. I'm not happy about it," Bush said Monday afternoon in the Oval Office, with Bolton at his side. Bush did not name a replacement, and officials offered no timetable for an announcement.

Of course, there is the usual "blame the Democrats" routine as the article goes on. Bolton is already serving, though; why would he need to be approved again?

Bolton got the position in August 2005, appointed by Bush when Congress was in recess.

Oh, that's right. The Senate has been Republican since his appointment, and the new members haven't been seated yet. Bush can blame Senate Democrats all he wants, but his party still (one more month!) occupies the majority there. When is he going to understand that even his own party has left him?

Technorati Tags: John Bolton George W. Bush United Nations

Bipartisanship

2006-12-02T13:23:00.000-08:00

One of the post-Election Day Republican memes both nationally and in Minnesota is that Democrats aren't going to work with minority Republicans and the Republican executives (Gov. Pawlenty and Pres. Bush). You'll remember that this was their main criticism of the selection of incoming State Sen. Larry Pogemiller as Senate Majority Leader, and that they touted their incoming minority leaders, Sen. Dave Senjem and Rep. Marty Seifert, as reasonable and willing to work with the DFL.

Yeah, right.

"When you have a boatload of money, your job is to keep the drunken sailors off the ship," said Rep. Marty Seifert, R-Marshall and the incoming House minority leader." (AP)

Really bipartisan - Seifert's time as minority leader will be a joke. Insulting the DFL as "drunken sailors" is a quick way to lose even more seats for his caucus and to lose what little good name the GOP has left. Toss in the appointment of extremist Rep. Tom Emmer as deputy minority leader, and the Republican House leadership is going to make things a lot of fun to watch. This is a caucus that has lost all sense of the center.

UPDATE: Lori Sturdevant's column today is about the choice of Seifert as minority leader and what it means.

(Via MDE)

Technorati Tags: Marty Seifert Dave Senjem Tom Emmer MN GOP

Simple Answers to Simple Questions

2006-12-02T12:51:00.000-08:00

Question: Does anybody really believe that Tim Pawlenty will be governor until January 2011 if things go his way, even though he promised he would be?

Answer: No. Not even Ron Eibensteiner.

Another edition of simple answers to simple questions.

Technorati Tags: Tim Pawlenty GOP 2008 Ron Eibensteiner John McCain

He Just Doesn't Care

2006-11-28T19:08:00.000-08:00

After almost six years, what more can you say?

Technorati Tags: Jim Webb George W. Bush Iraq

Realignment

2006-11-28T11:40:00.000-08:00

It is obvious that in the past four years there have been huge DFL gains across the state. After 2002, the House had an 81-52 Republican majority, while the Senate had a 35-32 DFL majority. Of course, the House is now 85-49 for the DFL and the Senate is 44-23. There are a lot of reasons for this, but one of the most important is the realignment of some formerly reliable GOP areas to DFL control. Two of these areas are the western metro area and Southeastern Minnesota.

West Metro

After the 2002 election (the first cycle after redistricting), the West Metro area (which I’m defining as SDs 41-45) had 8 Republican House members and 2 DFL House members, as well as 3 GOP Senators and 2 DFL Senators. That’s a total delegation of 11 GOP and 4 DFL. In that year, the average GOP margin of victory was 22.26%, while the average DFL margin was 18.01%. This was not an area that looked great for the DFL; much of the area is fairly comfortable and fiscally conservative. The 2002 numbers:

	Winner	Party	%age	Loser	Party	%age	Margin
41A	Ron Erhardt	GOP	64.56%	Deb James	DFL	35.29%	29.27%
41B	Alice Seagren	GOP	63.65%	Kurt Laughinghouse	DFL	36.24%	27.41%
41	Geoff Michel	GOP	56.02%	Marilyn McKnight	DFL	33.31%	22.71%
42A	Peter Adolphson	GOP	52.36%	Dave Larson	DFL	34.12%	18.24%
42B	Erik Paulson	GOP	71.95%	Ray Daniels	DFL	27.96%	43.99%
42	David Hann	GOP	49.19%	Larry Piumbroeck	DFL	20.64%	28.55%
43A	Jeff Johnson	GOP	61.74%	Sheryl Frieman	DFL	38.21%	23.53%
43B	Ron Abrams	GOP	60.26%	Wes Lindstrom	DFL	39.62%	20.64%
43	David Gaither	GOP	54.18%	Harold Lerner	DFL	34.36%	19.82%
44A	Jim Rhodes	GOP	48.72%	Betty Folliard	DFL	46.88%	1.84%
44B	Ron Latz	DFL	54.85%	Lisa Peilen	GOP	41.18%	13.67%
44	Steve Kelley	DFL	59.06%	Daniel Freeman	GOP	35.16%	23.90%
45A	Lynne Osterman	GOP	54.38%	Mark Thompson	DFL	45.49%	8.89%
45B	Lyndon Carlson	DFL	57.53%	Mike Barnett	GOP	42.37%	15.16%
45	Ann Rest	DFL	59.61%	Rebekah Adams	GOP	40.29%	19.32%

As you may know, this is an area that today looks very different. After 2006, there are 4 GOP House members and 6 DFLers. That's DFL +4 House seats. There are now 2 GOP Senators and 3 DFLers. That's DFL +1 Senate seat. That means the delegation is now 6 GOP and 9 DFL, +5 DFL seats. In a closely divided Legislature, that's a big change. Here are the 2006 numbers:

	Winner	Party	%age	Loser	Party	%age	Margin
41A	Ron Erhardt	GOP	59.51%	Jeff Rich	DFL	40.37%	19.14%
41B	Neil Peterson	GOP	53.34%	Paul Rosenthal	DFL	46.53%	6.81%
41	Geoff Michel	GOP	56.10%	Andrew Borene	DFL	29.44%	26.66%
42A	Maria Ruud	DFL	55.01%	Bill Cullen	GOP	44.90%	10.11%
42B	Erik Paulson	GOP	64.04%	Rob Boyd	DFL	35.87%	28.17%
42	David Hann	GOP	51.77%	Carol Bomben	DFL	48.15%	3.62%
43A	Sarah Anderson	GOP	52.54%	Sandy Hewitt	DFL	47.37%	5.17%
43B	John Benson	DFL	53.92%	Dave Johnson	GOP	46.01%	7.91%
43	Terri Bonoff	DFL	51.93%	Judy Johnson	GOP	47.96%	3.97%
44A	Steve Simon	DFL	70.21%	Jason Van Buren	GOP	29.60%	40.61%
44B	Ryan Winkler	DFL	69.29%	John Palmatier	GOP	30.50%	38.79%
44	Ron Latz	DFL	68.08%	Dave Carlson	GOP	31.57%	36.51%
45A	Sandra Peterson	DFL	57.30%	Sarah Durenberger	GOP	42.58%	14.72%
45B	Lyndon Carlson	DFL	64.62%	Gregg Prest	GOP	35.25%	29.37%
45	Ann Rest	DFL	64.27%	Derek Brigham	GOP	35.59%	28.68%

There were other signs of a major DFL realignment this year; the average GOP margin of victory in 2006 was 14.93% (-7.33% from 2002) and the average DFL margin was 23.41% (+5.40% from 2002). Overall, some very nice trends in this area.

Southeastern Minnesota

After 2002 in SE Minnesota (which I'll define as SDs 27-31), there were 9 Republican House members and one DFL House member. There were 3 GOP Senators (counting Sen. Sheila Kiscaden, who was caucusing with the GOP) and 2 DFL Senators, one of whom, Sen. Dan Sparks, had won by less than a dozen votes. The average GOP margin of victory was 19.07%, the average DFL margin 11.70%. This part of the state was traditionally one of the most reliably Republican before 2004. Here are the numbers:

	Winner	Party	%age	Loser	Party	%age	Margin
27A	Dan Dorman	GOP	57.37%	Allan Halvorsen	DFL	42.57%	14.80%
27B	Jeff Anderson	GOP	51.20%	Jeanne Poppe	DFL	48.72%	2.48%
27	Dan Sparks	DFL	45.54%	Grace Schwab	GOP	45.52%	0.02%
28A	Jerry Dempsey	GOP	56.96%	Sandy Wollschlager	DFL	42.97%	13.99%
28B	Steve Sviggum	GOP	66.11%	Scott Metcalf	DFL	33.81%	32.30%
28	Steve Murphy	DFL	52.42%	Gary Iocco	GOP	47.48%	4.94%
29A	Randy Demmer	GOP	53.14%	Rodney Peterson	DFL	35.14%	18.00%
29B	Fran Bradley	GOP	67.64%	Paul Munnis	DFL	32.18%	35.46%
29	Dave Senjem	GOP	57.04%	Mike Tupper	DFL	29.02%	28.02%
30A	Carla Nelson	GOP	39.77%	Tina Liebling	DFL	33.15%	6.62%
30B	Bill Kuisle	GOP	70.81%	Eric Starnes	DFL	29.04%	41.77%
30	Sheila Kiscaden	I/GOP	41.56%	Rich Wright	DFL	19.32%	22.24%
31A	Gene Pelowski	DFL	64.97%	Justin Costello	GOP	34.82%	30.15%
31B	Greg Davids	GOP	53.45%	Al Hein	DFL	46.43%	7.02%
31	Bob Kierlin	GOP	53.02%	Sharon Ropes	DFL	46.91%	6.11%

After this year's elections, there will be 8 DFL and 2 GOP House members - that's +7 DFL. There will also be 4 DFL Senators and 1 GOP Senator from those SDs, +2 DFL. In the House, four of the DFL pickups came from beating incumbents (27B, 30A, 30B, and 31B) while the other three (27A, 28A, and 29B) came in open seats. Both of the Senate pickups (30 and 31) came in open seats. Here are those numbers:

	Winner	Party	%age	Loser	Party	%age	Margin
27A	Robin Brown	DFL	50.78%	Matt Benda	GOP	49.10%	1.68%
27B	Jeanne Poppe	DFL	56.33%	Jeff Anderson	GOP	43.53%	12.80%
27	Dan Sparks	DFL	67.72%	George Marin	GOP	32.18%	35.54%
28A	Sandy Wollschlager	DFL	51.36%	Gary Iocco	GOP	48.33%	3.03%
28B	Steve Sviggum	GOP	60.82%	Jeffrey Flaten	DFL	39.05%	21.77%
28	Steve Murphy	DFL	54.26%	Steve Drazkowski	GOP	45.33%	8.93%
29A	Randy Demmer	GOP	57.85%	Wes Urevig	DFL	42.05%	15.80%
29B	Kim Norton	DFL	50.23%	Rich Decker	GOP	49.59%	0.64%
29	Dave Senjem	GOP	55.43%	Rob Broberg	DFL	33.35%	22.08%
30A	Tina Liebling	DFL	52.76%	Carla Nelson	GOP	47.04%	5.72%
30B	Andy Welti	DFL	51.85%	Bill Kuisle	GOP	48.05%	3.80%
30	Ann Lynch	DFL	52.47%	Scott Wright	GOP	47.41%	5.06%
31A	Gene Pelowski	DFL	69.82%	Lewie Reiman	GOP	29.92%	39.90%
31B	Ken Tschumper	DFL	50.01%	Greg Davids	GOP	49.70%	0.31%
31	Sharon Ropes	DFL	46.74%	Brenda Johnson	GOP	35.38%	11.36%

The average GOP margin was 19.88% (+.82% from 2002) and the average DFL margin was 10.21% (-1.49% from 2002). That negative trend for the DFL margin is mostly due to having only one safe incumbent, Rep. Pelowski in 31A. Incidentally, both new Senators and 5 of the 7 DFL House members elected in 2004 or 2006 are women.

Is this a temporary phenomenon or a permanent realignment?

Happy Thanksgiving/#500

2006-11-23T12:16:00.000-08:00

Happy Thanksgiving to all.

As a happy coincidence, this happens to be the 500th posted on NSP. I am thankful for many things, but particularly those readers who have been here since the beginning and continue to support this blog, despite its occasionally unreliable updating. NSP is now almost two years old, and it will be much less than two more years before we hit 1000. NSP will be around for years to come.

Happy Thanksgiving again!

Kiffmeyer in the House?

2006-11-22T15:28:00.000-08:00

Call me a skeptic, but I just don't see Mary Kiffmeyer running for the Minnesota House. Moving from an executive position like Secretary of State to a non-leadership position in the state house is very much a backwards move, and it's just not very likely. Look at outgoing Speakers of the House Dennis Hastert and Steve Sviggum at the federal and state levels, respectively: both are widely rumored to be seriously considering retirement. It isn't any fun to go from being in charge to being a back-bencher. HD16B is strong Republican territory (Pawlenty earned 61%), so there is also no need for the GOP to call on Kiffmeyer to run.

It's possible, but don't hold your breath.

Technorati Tags: Mark Olson Mary Kiffmeyer MN-SOS

Hatch/DFL Performance Analysis

2006-11-14T12:46:00.000-08:00

[This took too long to get posted, but it's up. I plan on doing more objective analysis like this in the future, so I'd appreciate feedback. Enjoy. - NSP]

Obviously, the gubernatorial election was extremely close. The final (though unofficial) vote tally is that Hatch lost by 0.96%, 21,107 votes out of about 2,203,000 cast. Peter Hutchinson earned 141,735 votes, 6.43% of the total cast. That means that, had about 15% of Hutchinson voters switched to Hatch, it would be Gov.-elect Hatch today.

I've been looking at gubernatorial vote numbers for certain key areas around the state. Among those areas are DFL strongholds like St. Louis, Hennepin, and Ramsey counties, as well as other important counties and SDs. As I've been looking at these, it's more and more clear how badly Hatch underperformed the rest of the DFL ticket in most areas. It also shows that, with the exception of a very few areas, Hutchinson was not that big a factor in Hatch's loss.

I've put together some spreadsheets to compare the results in various counties. Most of it is pretty self-explanatory, but notes are included at the bottom of this post. The critical numbers here are in "Hatch Under" and "Vote Margin" categories.

St. Louis County

St. Louis County is in the northeastern corner of the state, and it includes the city of Duluth. It's an extremely reliable area for the DFL, and is also the largest county in Minnesota by area and by population (non-metro).

	DFL	GOP	IP	Other	Votes Cast:	~99,000
Senate	70.87%	25.88%	2.42%	0.83%
Governor	64.62%	29.34%	4.73%	1.31%	DFL Average:	68.65%
SOS	63.36%	30.32%	2.59%	3.73%	Hatch %:	64.62%
Auditor	64.90%	28.63%	3.68%	2.79%	Hatch Under:	-4.03%
AG	70.51%	24.17%	3.13%	2.19%	Vote Margin	-3986
MN House	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
MN Senate	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
Congress	73.59%	23.73%	0.00%	2.68%

Analysis: By any standard, Hatch did very well here; almost 65% is nothing to shake a stick at. On the other hand, others did much better - the top vote-getter, Congressman Oberstar, received more than Hatch, Hutchinson, and the "other" votes combined. While this wasn't a very bad area for Hatch, he still underperformed the rest of the ticket significantly, and there were probably a couple of thousand more votes to be won here. This is especially true because Hatch's roots are in the Duluth area. This is an area where the E85 headslapper may have hurt, especially outside Duluth itself.

The Hutchinson Factor: Minimal. Hutchinson won less than 5% here, well below his statewide impact. Besides Hutchinson, the IP didn't do very well here, though there were a relatively high number of "other" votes for governor. Given the strong DFL leanings of this county, many Hutchinson & "other" votes would have gone for Hatch if there'd been no third-party options.

Anoka County

Anoka County is a suburban north metro-area county including areas of the 3rd, 5th, and 6th CDs. It's well-off but also relatively balanced between the DFL and GOP. There were a number of hotly contested races, especially in the southern portion.

	DFL	GOP	IP	Other	Votes Cast:	~133,000
Senate	54.50%	41.55%	3.28%	0.67%
Governor	41.95%	51.27%	5.81%	0.97%	DFL Average:	49.66%
SOS	45.61%	47.72%	3.17%	3.50%	Hatch %:	41.95%
Auditor	49.15%	44.01%	4.95%	1.89%	Hatch Under:	-7.71%
AG	49.39%	45.00%	4.06%	1.55%	Vote Margin	-10258
MN House	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
MN Senate	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
Congress	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A

Analysis: This is a good example of how Hatch did poorly where it mattered. Note the almost 8% dropoff from the DFL average; though DFLers did well here (for the suburbs) Hatch took a beating. This is a high-population county; if Hatch had even halved the disparity between him and the rest of the candidates, it would have made up a quarter of his deficit statewide. Getting at least 45% ought not to have been difficult, but here there's evidence of serious underperformance.

The Hutchinson Factor: Mild. Though Hutchinson still did worse than his statewide total, he captured a significant percentage of votes. However, given Hatch's showing here, many of those voters might not have gone to him anyways.

Dakota County

Dakota County composes a most of the southwestern metro area. While it is relatively well-off, with a number of wealthy suburbs, it also contains more blue-collar areas such as South Saint Paul. Areas within the county run the gamut from very conservative (mostly the western portion of the county) to fairly progressive, (mostly the eastern portion) and it is part of CDs 2 and 4. House and Senate DFLers made significant gains here this year. Of special note is that this is Gov. Pawlenty's base (he grew up in South Saint Paul and lives in Eagan) and also Mike Hatch's current residence (Burnsville).

	DFL	GOP	IP	Other	Votes Cast:	~167,000
Senate	55.93%	40.36%	3.04%	0.67%
Governor	40.70%	52.14%	6.37%	0.79%	DFL Average:	50.52%
SOS	46.70%	47.08%	2.87%	3.35%	Hatch %:	40.70%
Auditor	49.01%	44.46%	4.27%	2.26%	Hatch Under:	-9.82%
AG	50.43%	44.18%	3.81%	1.58%	Vote Margin	-16395
MN House	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
MN Senate	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
Congress	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A

Analysis: Though the rest of the DFL did quite well here, Hatch barely hit 40%. Some of this can be attributed to Pawlenty's long-time residence, success in his legislative races, and service as Majority Leader from 1999-2002. Still, Hatch significantly underperformed even the next-worst candidate, Mark Ritchie (who barely lost here). Remember, Hatch lives here too, and given DFL legislative candidates' success, this looks even worse for him. This is another large county, and, as with Anoka, a relatively small reduction in his underperformance would have netted him a lot of votes.

The Hutchinson Factor: Significant. Hutchinson earned here just about what he did statewide, and he did much better than any other IP candidates. Because voters across Dakota County have a geographic connection to Pawlenty, those voting for Hutchinson likely did so because they could not justify voting to re-elect the governor; thus, these voters likely would have broken strongly for Hatch had Hutchinson not been on the ballot.

Olmsted County

Olmsted County is in Southeastern Minnesota, including Rochester and rural areas. This was an intensely contested area, being the largest county in the 1st Congressional District and containing some heavily targeted Minnesota House and Senate races. This area had been known as solid Republican territory until recently; these results are mixed.

	DFL	GOP	IP	Other	Votes Cast:	~56,000
Senate	53.46%	42.72%	3.18%	0.64%
Governor	38.76%	54.81%	5.39%	1.04%	DFL Average:	47.80%
SOS	41.42%	51.13%	3.13%	4.32%	Hatch %:	38.76%
Auditor	44.03%	48.64%	4.88%	2.45%	Hatch Under:	-9.04%
AG	48.50%	45.25%	4.60%	1.65%	Vote Margin	-5060
MN House	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
MN Senate	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
Congress	51.57%	48.28%	0.00%	0.15%

Analysis: While the Hatch underperformance here isn't unusually large, Hatch's absolute percentage is terrible. Klobuchar, Swanson, and Walz all managed to win here, Klobuchar and Walz with over 50%, so Hatch's inability to crack 40% is serious trouble. At best, it indicates an en masse abandonment by moderates, while at worst it suggests weak support by DFLers as well. Fortunately, this isn't a large county, but unfortunately it appears to be fairly typical of Southern Minnesota. As in St. Louis County, this is an area where Dutcher's E85 blank hurt.

The Hutchinson Factor: Surprisingly mild. Tim Penny beat Roger Moe by almost 20% here in 2002 and did better then than Hatch did this year. Despite this, Hutchinson received well under 6%. This is another area where Hatch did so badly that it's questionable whether he would have won more than 50% of the IP votes.

Hennepin & Ramsey Counties

Everybody knows about Hennepin and Ramsey Counties. These include the cities of Minneapolis and St. Paul and most of their first-ring suburbs. The Pioneer Press article mentioned in the last post has some analysis of the gubernatorial vote in the Twin Cities, but I felt it worth analyzing the entire counties combined. For the most part, these two counties are the core DFL areas of the state. In certain smaller areas of the counties, there was movement towards DFLers at the legislative level, such as northern Ramsey and western Hennepin counties. Minority populations make up significant numbers here, a fact which would seem to work heavily against Pawlenty's success here. These counties include parts of the 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 5th, and 6th CDs.

	DFL	GOP	IP	Other	Votes Cast:	~700,000
Senate	64.99%	30.82%	3.28%	0.91%
Governor	51.44%	39.31%	8.08%	1.17%	DFL Average:	59.46%
SOS	56.84%	36.58%	3.38%	3.20%	Hatch %:	51.44%
Auditor	57.60%	34.39%	5.03%	2.98%	Hatch Under:	-8.02%
AG	58.41%	34.65%	4.14%	2.80%	Vote Margin	-56140
MN House	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
MN Senate	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
Congress	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A

Analysis: As expected, this was the DFL's bread-and-butter, with the DFL averaging almost 60%. Strong performances here carried Mark Ritchie and Rebecca Otto to surprising wins, and legislative DFLers also did well. Even so, Hatch barely cracked 50%, still badly underperforming the rest of the ticket. Pawlenty did a little better than the rest of the GOP ticket, but not 8% better. You already know the single biggest reason for Hatch's underperformance in these counties, which, by the way, was more than twice enough to cost him the election.

The Hutchinson Factor: Massive. The Pioneer Press already went into this, but had Hatch been more appealing to even half of Hutchinson voters in Hennepin & Ramsey counties, Pawlenty would be packing up for a move back to Eagan. Hutchinson's performance isn't well explained by his strength as a candidate; four years ago, Tim Penny won about 13% of the votes here, and he was a far stronger candidate than Hutchinson. Independents for other offices did better here that year as well. Hutchinson's performance is likely due to voter unhappiness with Hatch. Whether that existed before the final week or two of the campaign is hard to say.

SD43

SD43 is in western Hennepin County, including parts of Minnetonka and Plymouth. Coming into 2004, this was Republican territory, with a GOP state senator and two GOP state representatives. After 2006, it has a DFL state senator and a split House delegation. I chose to analyze this SD to see whether Hatch did better in an area which swung hard towards the DFL.

	DFL	GOP	IP	Other	Votes Cast:	~37,000
Senate	57.72%	39.19%	2.65%	0.44%
Governor	40.86%	51.76%	6.69%	0.69%	DFL Average:	48.15%
SOS	46.63%	48.26%	2.62%	2.49%	Hatch %:	40.86%
Auditor	48.95%	45.64%	3.87%	1.54%	Hatch Under:	-7.29%
AG	47.60%	47.82%	3.25%	1.33%	Vote Margin	-2697
MN House	50.70%	49.22%	0.00%	0.08%
MN Senate	51.93%	47.96%	0.00%	0.11%
Congress	33.52%	66.37%	0.00%	0.11%

Analysis: Nope. Though he performed better here than in some other other areas, he still did much worse than anyone but Wendy Wilde. Again, 40% is bad almost anywhere, much less in Hennepin County, though Pawlenty did break 50%, so this was never going to be easy for Hatch to win. Here, as in a few other areas, Pawlenty did do significantly better than the rest of the GOP ticket (besides Ramstad). Note that these numbers are included in the Hennepin/Ramsey section above and that this is just an analysis of a section of that.

The Hutchinson Factor: Big. SD43 is a slightly blue-tinted district that Hatch did very poorly in. There's no particular reason to think that these voters are unusually enamored with Pawlenty, especially because property taxes are a big issue in these parts, so most third-party voters probably would have broken for Hatch.

SD56

SD56 is within Washington County, making up a section of the eastern suburbs. It consists of Woodbury, a portion of Stillwater, and a number of smaller communities. DFLers stunned the GOP this year by sweeping the district, previously represented by Republicans. Mintellect wrote his/her latest post on this district. Property taxes are mentioned, and I agree with this conclusion. I picked this district for the same reasons as SD43, and because it's safe to assume that those voters concerned with property taxes would not have been kind to Gov. Pawlenty. SD56 is split between two CDs, so Congress numbers are not included.

	DFL	GOP	IP	Other	Votes Cast:	~39,000
Senate	54.26%	42.18%	3.05%	0.51%
Governor	37.88%	53.75%	7.71%	0.66%	DFL Average:	50.01%
SOS	44.78%	49.23%	3.02%	2.97%	Hatch %:	37.88%
Auditor	48.46%	45.72%	4.11%	1.71%	Hatch Under:	-12.13%
AG	48.75%	46.13%	3.79%	1.33%	Vote Margin	-4730
MN House	50.88%	49.05%	0.00%	0.07%
MN Senate	52.92%	47.01%	0.00%	0.07%
Congress	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A

Analysis: Hatch did not benefit from this district's move to the DFL column. In fact, Hatch's undervote was the largest I found anywhere I looked into; despite a DFL average just a hair over 50%, Hatch won less than 38%. As elsewhere, Pawlenty did relatively well here, taking almost 54% and outperforming his fellow Republicans, but Hatch also obviously failed miserably connecting with these voters.

The Hutchinson Factor: Huge. Almost 8% for Hutchinson, when only one other IP candidate exceeded 4%, along with the property tax emphasis suggests that voters were looking to vote against Pawlenty but couldn't justify voting for Hatch. This didn't have anything to do with party or, most likely, with Hutchinson as a candidate; this district just didn't like Hatch.

SD11

Last one! SD11 is (was) Sen. Dallas Sams' district; Sen. Sams lost in a close race, flipping the legislative delegation from the district to 2-1 in favor of the GOP. This district is in Western Minnesota, entirely within CD7, and includes Douglas, Grant, Stevens, and Todd counties. Entirely rural and fairly conservative.

	DFL	GOP	IP	Other	Votes Cast:	~35,000
Senate	52.16%	43.57%	3.63%	0.64%
Governor	40.38%	53.08%	5.39%	1.15%	DFL Average:	49.95%
SOS	40.45%	52.50%	2.64%	4.41%	Hatch %:	40.38%
Auditor	45.40%	48.37%	4.19%	2.04%	Hatch Under:	-9.57%
AG	47.83%	46.75%	3.91%	1.51%	Vote Margin	-3350
MN House	48.55%	51.32%	0.00%	0.13%
MN Senate	48.59%	51.30%	0.00%	0.11%
Congress	66.67%	31.91%	0.00%	1.42%

Analysis: The statewide ticket didn't do very well here, and the DFL average statistic is skewed upwards by Rep. Peterson's performance. Without Peterson, the DFL average is 47.16%, Hatch Under is 6.78%, and Vote Margin is -2374. That doesn't look so bad, especially when you consider that Mark Ritchie only won .7% more votes than Hatch. That modified 6.78% underperformance is the second-lowest of any county or SD above, suggesting that Hatch may have been more in line with the rest of the ticket when the DFL did badly. In turn, that suggests that Hatch was winning over few of the moderates and conservatives that the rest of the ticket was. As a rural area, this is the kind of place you'd expect the ethanol lapse to hurt.

The Hutchinson Factor: Mild. Hutchinson did okay here, but there is evidence that those votes might have broken relatively strongly for Pawlenty. Hatch/Pawlenty and Ritchie/Kiffmeyer votes are very similar here. Interestingly, however, Mark Ritchie's independent opponent Bruce Kennedy polled very well here. Kennedy, though running as a true independent, let it be known that he was a former Republican and that he was "more conservative" than Kiffmeyer. Kennedy earned 4.37% and Kennedy plus the IP SOS candidate earned 7.01%, while Hutchinson won 5.39%. Because the DFL/GOP percentages are otherwise very close, it's likely that some of those Kennedy voters were also Pawlenty voters, (Pawlenty earned .58% more than Kiffmeyer) but many also voted for Hutchinson. It's safe to say that Kennedy's voters would have broken heavily Republican, and in this district, where Pawlenty earned more than 53%, it's a fair bet that SD11 Hutchinson voters might not have broken well for Hatch.

Final Analysis: There are three facts that are clear, though I'd welcome any other interpretations.

#1: Hatch's campaign badly underperformed the rest of the DFL ticket in the statewide results as well as in selected locations around the state. While lots of other DFLers won, including the other constitutional candidates, Hatch/Dutcher lost. This can be explained any number of ways, including that Dutcher's E85 lapse and Hatch's "Republican whore" comment (accurate or not) cost them.
#2: Gov. Tim Pawlenty did better than the rest of the GOP ticket, both statewide and in these same selected locations. Again, while the GOP took a beating on Nov. 7th, Pawlenty survived. This can probably be largely explained by Pawlenty's much-vaunted "nice guy" persona and, to a lesser extent, Mike Hatch and Judi Dutcher's errors down the stretch.
#3: Peter Hutchinson drew votes away from both Pawlenty and Hatch, quite possibly more from Hatch. However, Hutchinson was not the only factor in Hatch's loss. Hutchinson's percentage of the vote was often quite a bit less than the percentage of Hatch's underperformance.

"Hatch Under" is the percentage by which Hatch underperformed the DFL average (all applicable DFL candidates besides himself), and "Vote Margin" is the number of votes that underperformance represents. MN House,MN Senate, or U.S. Congress numbers were not included for counties or SDs that contain more than one such district. This doesn't apply to SDs, which by definition contain all of two HDs; here the HD numbers are for the two HDs combined. "Votes cast" are approximate and rounded to the nearest thousand.

Technorati Tags: Mike Hatch Judi Dutcher Tim Pawlenty Peter Hutchinson DFL analysis MN-Gov

Why Hatch Lost

2006-11-13T15:12:00.000-08:00

Today's Pioneer Press has a good analysis of the Hutchinson factor in Hatch's loss.

Independents (small i) were so much more likely to vote DFL/Democrat than Republican this year that almost any independent/Independence/other third party candidate was likely to skim off many more votes from us than from the GOP. That's troubling but hard to avoid, especially with the liberal Green Party so much stronger than any comparable conservative third party. What's really upsetting, however, is that Hatch lost so many votes to Hutchinson in what are traditionally strongly DFL areas, such as certain core areas of St. Paul.

What's clear now is that Hatch badly underperformed other DFL candidates. Part of that, especially in the areas that the article references, is that Hutchinson's success had a direct inverse correlation with Hatch's. Unfortunately, the Hatch/Dutcher campaign's gaffes down the stretch may have also played a big role. The rest of the statewide DFL ticket ran extremely disciplined and organized campaigns that made few mistakes and very little negative press; Hatch, on the other hand, not only had some baggage coming into the race but created his own on more than one occasion. Between Hutchinson, the E85/"Republican whore" fiasco and a dissatisfaction with Hatch from the beginning for some of the party's activists, Hatch just could not close out the campaign.

I'm going to do some more research on this and write up a post on the question later.

Technorati Tags: MN-Gov Mike Hatch Peter Hutchinson Tim Pawlenty

Eibensteiner Urges GOP to Break Promises

2006-11-12T18:10:00.000-08:00

Do these people just not take their promises seriously? Former GOP Chairman Ron Eibensteiner:

With the national Republicans losing sight of the Reagan legacy, many voters have turned away. Only by remaining true to the Reagan legacy can the Republican Party bounce back in 2008. Republicans should seriously consider Pawlenty for president in 2008. (emphasis added)

That's nice, isn't it? Only problem is that Pawlenty has repeatedly promised to serve out the full length of his term, which lasts until 2011, as recently as Friday.

How could we have re-elected this guy? Even his own party doesn't believe his promises.

Hat-tip to WBRW.

Technorati Tags: 2008 Tim Pawlenty Ron Eibensteiner Pawlenty's broken promises MN-Gov

DFL Aiming for Coleman in '08

2006-11-12T16:59:00.000-08:00

Today’s Pioneer Press has a front-page story about the DFL’s next big challenge, defeating Sen. Coleman in 2008 - it’s an interesting read. If things go well for the DFL and Democrats nationally over the next two years, and particularly if we put up a strong presidential candidate, Coleman could be very endangered. I’ve started a pair of new sections on the sidebar about possible candidates for Coleman’s Senate seat in ’08 and the next gubernatorial race in 2010. Somehow, I don't see Rep. McCollum as making a run for the seat, (as it says in the story) but one never knows.

Technorati Tags: Norm Coleman MN-Sen

Russ Won't Run

2006-11-12T00:12:00.000-08:00

Sen. Russ Feingold announces he won't run for President.

Between him and Gov. Mark Warner of Virginia, one has to wonder what's going on. Is someone (directly or indirectly) trying to clear the field? Both of these men had reasonable shots at the nomination and had excellent PACs and related operations already in place, and their eye on the presidency was well known.

Who does this help? Probably Edwards and Obama, in their roles as the Anti-Hillary. In fact, I'd be surprised to see anyone other than one of these three be the President-Elect two years from now.

Technorati Tags: 2008 Russ Feingold Mark Warner John Edwards Barack Obama Hillary Clinton President

Predictions Wrap-Up

2006-11-11T18:43:00.000-08:00

Monday morning I posted some predictions for Tuesday's results. I'm both pleased and disappointed that they were particularly accurate; I made conservative predictions, and DFL/Democratic candidates exceeded my expectations enormously, but unfortunately I was right on our big loss in the state, the governor's race.

I was more or less correct on all of the constitutional officer races except the Anderson/Otto race, and of course the U.S. Senate race. I underestimated Bachmann's margin, I thought the 3rd would be a little closer than it was, and I called the 1st the wrong way.

The predictions for the Legislature were far too conservative. The DFL picked up 2.5x as many seats in the Senate as predicted, and almost 4x as many in the House. The national predictions were similarly conservative; I undercalled the Senate by two seats and the House by (so far) 6 seats.

Overall, not too bad, and as I said, I'm pleased that my predictions were more cautious than the results bore out.

Lourey to Run Again?

2006-11-11T18:13:00.000-08:00

A reader forwarded an e-mail this morning from outgoing Sen. Becky Lourey's now-defunct gubernatorial campaign. The e-mail was a request for donations to the campaign; it's been pretty well known that the campaign has been in debt since her loss at the DFL State Convention in June. Contained within the e-mail?

Imagine, if everyone who voted for Becky Lourey in the DFL Primary contributed just $5, she would retire her campaign debt and be well on way to her next great public service adventure! (emphasis mine)

"Her next great public service adventure!" Lourey's son Tony won the race on Tuesday for her Senate seat, so it's unlikely that she'd be pursuing that office again, and her home in Kerrick is within House district 8A, held by DFLer Bill Hilty. Unless Hilty or Tony Lourey are retiring or she plans on making a primary challenge, the only opportunities for her in the next two cycles would be the '08 Senate race or another crack at the governor's mansion in 2010. Could she already be planning one of these races?

Technorati Tags: MN-Gov MN-Sen Becky Lourey

Election Aftermath

2006-11-11T14:44:00.000-08:00

[I've waited to finish this post until the major results were all final. In living with so much Republican control for so long, I've learned not to take things for granted. However, it appears now that we really have done what we thought we'd done. Thank God. - NSP]

"The times they are a-changin'"
- Bob Dylan

So...we won. It's odd to be able to say that, but we won. We won nationally and we won at the state level. Congress will be returning to Washington in January to a Democratic majority in both the House and Senate, and the Legislature will be returning to St. Paul to large DFL majorities in both the House and the Senate as well. With the sad exception of the governor's office, we will also have Democrats in the constitutional offices. Despite an embarrassing loss in the 6th, we will be sending a majority DFL delegation to Washington. We won, and it's going to mean a brighter future for our state, our country, and just possibly our whole world.

A lot of my fellow bloggers have already written a lot on the results at the state and national levels. As this post is up almost four days after Election Day, I don't see the point in my doing the same. The Big E has some Hatch/Ellison comparison, MNCR has some analysis of polling accuracy, Mintellect has returned for a little post-election rundown, and of course Kos is a great source for information at the national level. Lots of other bloggers and media folks have posted enormous amounts of analysis already; it's there for the finding.

Both Congress and the Legislature are now controlled by Democrats, but we still face relatively strong Republican executives. One of the keys to our success will be to neutralize them early by passing overwhelmingly popular legislation that they are likely to veto to protect the interests their extremely conservative bases. Stem cell legislation, minimum wage legislation, and legislation to allow direct negotiation with pharmaceutical companies are examples of this. Framing the next two (national) and four (Minnesota) years is important, and if we can force Republican leaders to veto centrist, mainstream pieces of legislation, it can quickly become clear to the public that their priorities are our priorities and the Republican executives stand against them. It will be pretty hard for Pres. Bush to lose any more support, but weakening Gov. Pawlenty can only be a good thing. Having the public on our side will allow us to be successful with our other, potentially more divisive priorities.

One of the things I've been thinking about most since Tuesday is how we treat Republicans now that we control three chambers that we didn't before. Particularly in the U.S. House, Democrats have been pretty mistreated for quite a long time, and I'm sure the same is true in the U.S. Senate and MN House, though I doubt that it has been as bad. Matt Stoller at MyDD wrote a little bit about this a month ago. While Republicans are obviously not due any of the advantages of the majority, I believe that to treat their caucus as second-class would be to sink to their level, a level unbecoming of the Democratic Party; as nice as it would be to turn the GOP's behavior around on them, such turnabout accomplishes nothing. Though we're still riding high on our victory on Tuesday, it's impossible to say how 2008 or 2010 will treat us, and were we to abuse the Republican caucuses things would likely be worse the next time they retake a majority. In the interest of real bipartisanship, I hope that we are fair - but tough. We can run all over our opposition in a lot of ways without being unfair or nasty. For the sake of our democratic system I deeply fear that nastiness becoming permanent in St. Paul and D.C., and I wish it weren't the burden of Democrats to turn it around, but it is. Let's take this opportunity to show once again why we're the better party.

All that said, it will be intriguing to see how the GOP handles being the minority party again. With all their talk about a "permanent Republican majority" it may be that some of them really believed that they would never lose again. It's tough to lose so much so fast, but it's no more than the remaining members deserve. Don't be surprised to see a number of Republican retirements or possibly even party switches over the next two years.

By the way, to those faithful few who are still around to read this: I'm still embarrassed about the state of this blog over the past months, but I intend to increase my time commitment to it and blog consistently and frequently in the future. You can expect quite a bit more NSP from now on.

Technorati Tags: partisanship DFL Tim Pawlenty

Post-Election Analysis This Evening

2006-11-09T12:51:00.000-08:00

There will be some post-election analysis and thoughts coming ~~a little later this evening~~ sometime Saturday. Sorry.

Pre-Election Predictions

2006-11-06T09:43:00.000-08:00

Official NSP Predictions:

U.S. Senate: Amy Klobuchar in a blowout
Governor: Tim Pawlenty by a hair
Secretary of State: Mark Ritchie by a small but surprising margin
Attorney General: Lori Swanson by less than predicted, but still a solid margin
State Auditor: Pat Anderson with room to spare

1st CD: Gutknecht in a nail-biter
2nd CD: Kline in a blowout
3rd CD: Ramstad, but Wilde comes closer than expected
4th CD: McCollum in a blowout
5th CD: Ellison well over 50%
6th CD: Bachmann in a squeaker
7th CD: Peterson in a blowout
8th CD: Oberstar in a blowout

MN House: DFL +5
MN Senate: DFL +2

For my Congressional predictions, see Predict06.

I've taken a conservative line here; I don't think that Dems will do as well as is the current CW. There will be enough to take both Legislative houses, but not the governor's race. Nationally, we'll take the House with a few seats to spare, but the Senate will be out of reach until at least 2008. Some of these predictions aren't ones I want to make, but they are my best guesses, and for the gubernatorial, auditor, and congressional races, I'd be more than happy to be wrong.

This will probably be my last post until the morning after. Good luck to us all, and make sure you leave it all on the table.

Technorati Tags: predictions MN-Sen MN-01 MN-02 MN-06 MN-Leg

Leveraging the Web

2006-10-24T12:20:00.000-07:00

Because the Google-bomb is a personal favorite, and because MyDD's idea is fantastic, here it is:

--AZ-Sen: Jon Kyl

--AZ-01: Rick Renzi

--AZ-05: J.D. Hayworth

--CA-04: John Doolittle

--CA-11: Richard Pombo

--CA-50: Brian Bilbray

--CO-04: Marilyn Musgrave

--CO-05: Doug Lamborn

--CO-07: Rick O'Donnell

--CT-04: Christopher Shays

--FL-13: Vernon Buchanan

--FL-16: Joe Negron

--FL-22: Clay Shaw

--ID-01: Bill Sali

--IL-06: Peter Roskam

--IL-10: Mark Kirk

--IL-14: Dennis Hastert

--IN-02: Chris Chocola

--IN-08: John Hostettler

--IA-01: Mike Whalen

--KS-02: Jim Ryun

--KY-03: Anne Northup

--KY-04: Geoff Davis

--MD-Sen: Michael Steele

--MN-01: Gil Gutknecht

--MN-06: Michele Bachmann

--MO-Sen: Jim Talent

--MT-Sen: Conrad Burns

--NV-03: Jon Porter

--NH-02: Charlie Bass

--NJ-07: Mike Ferguson

--NM-01: Heather Wilson

--NY-03: Peter King

--NY-20: John Sweeney

--NY-26: Tom Reynolds

--NY-29: Randy Kuhl

--NC-08: Robin Hayes

--NC-11: Charles Taylor

--OH-01: Steve Chabot

--OH-02: Jean Schmidt

--OH-15: Deborah Pryce

--OH-18: Joy Padgett

--PA-04: Melissa Hart

--PA-07: Curt Weldon

--PA-08: Mike Fitzpatrick

--PA-10: Don Sherwood

--RI-Sen: Lincoln Chafee

--TN-Sen: Bob Corker

--VA-Sen: George Allen

--VA-10: Frank Wolf

--WA-Sen: Mike McGavick

--WA-08: Dave Reichert

There hasn't been any blogging here because this blogger has no idea how to blog elections. None. Being anonymous, I don't feel I have the access to a myriad of resources that the other MN bloggers (who are doing a fantastic job) have. Have no fear; there will be plenty to read here about the new Democratic majority in both houses of Congress as well as the DFL governor, constitutional officers, and majority in the Legislature on Nov. 8th.

HACKTACULAR

2006-10-06T10:12:00.000-07:00

BLAME THE DEMS!!!!!

Is there any low they won't sink to?

Calling Their Bluff

2006-09-26T16:36:00.000-07:00

Look, according to both one of the top Republicans in the state as well as Michael Brodkorb himself, campaign staff are fair game for political attacks. It's not a door that I think ought to be opened, but the Minnesota GOP has already gone there. If John Kline goes after someone who is essentially a campaign volunteer, we can go after Mark Kennedy and Michele Bachmann for hiring Michael Brodkorb, better known as Minnesota Democrats Exposed.

Michael Brodkorb isn't just fair game for political attacks by the Klobuchar and Wetterling campaigns, he's practically begging for it. Has he ever said anything on his blog that Kennedy or Wetterling wouldn't want associated with their campaigns? Too bad. Lit pieces and media buys are very much a possibility. Lets show them that turnabout is fair play.

Rew has more. So does MNCR.

Technorati Tags: MN-02 MN-06 MN-Sen Mark Kennedy Michele Bachmann

Financial Desperation

2006-09-21T13:15:00.000-07:00

Shorter Kennedy campaign: "We're going to shut down all of the sections of our website for which security is less important, but we still want you to send us your credit card number and donate money."

To my Republican friends: is this really the campaign you want for U.S. Senate?

Technorati Tags: Amy Klobuchar Mark Kennedy MN-Sen

Republicans Admit Kennedy Campaign Finished

2006-09-17T22:43:00.000-07:00

I'll just quote Joe Pally, communications director for the Kennedy campaign. This is from today's GOP Newsline e-mail, in reference to our Senate race, emphasis mine:

"The Democrats might be excited to spend taxpayer money, but they're not going to waste money in Minnesota on a race that isn't close."

Ouch. They said it. MN Publius has more.

(Please note: this is an MDE-style post).

Technorati Tags: MN-Sen MN GOP

VOTE OR DIE

2006-09-12T12:24:00.000-07:00

It's primary day...and you know what that means.

Hackery

2006-09-11T00:57:00.000-07:00

How dishonest can you get? (via ML)

Oh, and I didn't realize that "Islamofacist" is a word used by actual politicians.

MDE Wrong Again

2006-09-06T10:09:00.000-07:00

MN Publius puts up a post responding to MDE's false allegations of Tim Walz drunk driving that is a teaching example of rapid response.

MDE's credibility is dissolving by the hour. His "Disclosure" page is long overdue, and the additional information promised us on the Keith Ellison story hasn't materialized.

What is MDE hiding?

Technorati Tags: Keith Ellison MN-05 Tim Walz MN-01

Ostrow Chooses Wife as CM

2006-09-04T21:57:00.000-07:00

Paul Ostrow, one of Keith Ellison's challengers in the 5th, has chosen his wife as his campaign manager to replace Jason Amundsen, who was fired after using atrocious tactics. Hopefully she won't go behind his back on the campaign - if so, he has bigger problems than losing an election.

Staff shakeups at the top are never good news for a campaign that is now one week away from primary day. It's good that he dismissed Amundsen (who knows if he authorized Amundsen's tactics), but it's no good for his chances to have this all happen now.

Technorati Tags: Paul Ostrow Keith Ellison MN-05

Anti-Semitism

2006-09-04T11:16:00.000-07:00

Gotta love how MDE thinks Keith Ellison and the DFL are anti-Semites.

George W. Bush says all Jews are going to hell.

Remember, he's a uniter, not a divider.

Technorati Tags: George W. Bush anti-Semitism Keith Ellison MN-05

Minnesota Murtha

2006-08-31T14:40:00.000-07:00

Can anybody tell me what the hell Jack Murtha is doing endorsing someone in a DFL primary in Minnesota?

On the other hand, American Jewish World endorsed Ellison today. That should put to rest MDE's implications of his being obviously anti-Semitic or anti-Israel.

Technorati Tags: Jack Murtha MN-05 Keith Ellison Mike Erlandson

Kiffmeyer Responding to Ritchie

2006-08-31T11:47:00.000-07:00

Secretary of State Kiffmeyer is on the defensive, cutting a business filing fee immediately after Mark Ritchie slammed her for it. I don't buy the "been in the works for months" line, and the only other possibility is that Kiffmeyer is simultaneously running scared and running stupid by letting Ritchie and the DFL control the agenda in the race.

Kiffmeyer is undoubtedly doing "a heck of a job." She's as partisan as they come in a position that is perhaps the most necessarily non-partisan in the state. She has given contradictory advice to candidates from the two parties, with the more favorable interpretation reserved for Republicans (obviously). She has personally screwed over an IP candidate filing in CD5 and has a solid history of making voting more, not less, difficult. She needs to go, for the good of the state.

I'm a big fan of Mark Ritchie; he has the experience, the talent, and the mindset to get the job done the right way. From what I've seen, his campaign is being excellently run and, as shown by Kiffmeyer's retreat, he's well on his way to winning in November.

Technorati Tags: MN-SOS Mark Ritchie Mary Kiffmeyer

DisgustingSickening Tactics in the 5th

2006-08-30T20:33:00.000-07:00

It takes quite a bit to get me to peek out of my shell these days, but this got me riled up.

MDE wrote a pair of posts earlier in the day about 911 calls regarding Keith Ellison. They were posts that are unfortunately typical of Mr. Brodkorb's blog - making insinuations that were as totally out of context to the events as one can imagine. These insinuations were dishonest, fear-mongering, and made me lose some of my remaining respect for MDE. They were not posts that he ought to be proud of.

Unfortunately, we've all come to expect this kind of stuff from MDE. It's nothing new, and it's nothing surprising. What is new is that, according to Dan Weinand, Ellison's CD5 rival Paul Ostrow's campaign manager is MDE's source.

This is the kind of thing that cannot be permitted in the DFL if it is to truly succeed in Minnesota. It makes us look like a whole party full of MDEs. We're not; the DFL is full of people who will rightfully be disgusted by this. Particularly pathetic is that the Ostrow campaign couldn't even do it right - in being exposed, they've probably sunk their campaign overnight. Many kudos to the pros at Ostrow HQ.

I'm not going to be quite as harsh as MNCR, who says that Ostrow should be out of the party. Instead, I'm going to say that if Ostrow hasn't sacked Jason Amundsen by COB tomorrow, Ostrow should be out of the party. Absolutely no question that Amundsen should never, ever be hired by another DFL campaign.

With every post that MDE makes about the primary in the 5th, it becomes more and more apparent that the GOP is scared blind about the prospect of a Congressman Ellison. Unfortunately for them, they're about to find that their tactics have backfired once again.

UPDATE: MN Publius has more. This takes the situation from disgusting to sickening.

Technorati Tags: Keith Ellison Paul Ostrow MN-05

Tidbits

2006-08-18T00:43:00.000-07:00

A couple of quick hits, as I try to ease back into writing for NSP.

First, Sen. Becky Lourey was on MPR this afternoon speaking about her gubernatorial candidacy and answering questions. The radio appearance is proof that, yes, she really is alive and kicking, but she hasn't mounted a terribly strong primary challenge. However, there are rumblings that the powers-that-be aren't particularly pleased with Hatch's performance as a candidate so far; his campaign-on-the-cheap idea, relatively poor polling and smattering of bad press can't have won many doubters over. For better or worse, the odds are long that a little buyer's remorse will translate into serious support for Sen. Lourey. Still, Hatch is making a mistake in (apparently) paying so little attention to his primary challenge. Then again, Hatch seems to have been sleepwalking since the convention, and he doesn't seem to have much attention for his Republican opponent, either.

My personal beef with the AG is his extremely disappointing refusal (warning: MDE) to personally endorse DFL-endorsed AG candidate Steve Kelley. Hatch, as the endorsed candidate, has a responsibility to the DFL to support the ticket. Just as establishment DFLers are now rightly expected to support him over Lourey, Hatch must support Kelley, no matter who else is in the race. If he is truly not willing to do so, he should renounce the DFL endorsement. His waffling here makes me worry that he's not a team player, something critical for our gubernatorial candidate.

Oh, and Mike? Replace this disaster. I will do it for free, and I'm not kidding.

Tim Walz's campaign has a new blog up. We'll see how good it will be, but I'm not holding my breath. Blogging doesn't seem to be an ideal medium for campaigns, especially at the congressional level.

Gil Gutknecht is embroiled in a mini-scandal. Perhaps he doesn't understand how we truck drivers in the tubes like our internets. Of course, he might not even be on the ballot in November. Even if he is, his race is now the 39th closest in the country. Times are tough.

Finally, help Patty fund her campaign.

Note: I've done some badly needed updating of the blogroll. Several blogs that have gone quiet have been removed (does anyone remember Kelly Doran?), and I've added Bluestem Prairie to the blogroll. It's a great blog that's covering the Gutknecht vs. Walz race in the 1st CD. I haven't written much about it (see some coverage above), but it's one of the sleeper races that could be pivotal for Democrats' chances of retaking the House in 2006. I'm keeping an eye on a couple of newer blogs that are possibilities for addition as well.

Technorati Tags: Becky Lourey Mike Hatch Tim Pawlenty MN-Gov Steve Kelley MN-AG Gil Gutknecht Tim Walz MN-01

AG Endorsement Analysis

2006-08-13T23:56:00.000-07:00

Steve Kelley was endorsed by the DFL State Central Committee on Saturday. Unfortunately for him, it won't matter much.

Under normal circumstances, a party endorsement in a contested primary brings a lot of big perks: money in the war chest, voter information, support from respected names, and, perhaps most importantly in a low-profile race like this, name recognition. Of course, these are far from normal circumstances. The only thing that matters now for Kelley, Bill Luther, and Lori Swanson is name recognition. I believe that Luther has the edge as of today.

The AG race is a low-profile matter even in the best campaigns. Because it comes to the voters at the same time as the other constitutional officers, the entire Legislature, the U.S. House, and sometimes the U.S. Senate seat, the average voter is not paying a lot of attention to the race in particular. This is particularly true in a quiet primary in September, before political attention becomes focused. In short, few primary voters are likely to have heard of Kelley as an AG candidate, to have heard of Luther in the past few years, or to ever have heard of Lori Swanson. The person whose name is in a voter's mind when they walk into the booth on the 12th will likely be winning her vote.

With very little meaningful press coverage of the endorsement on Saturday, Kelley has not raised his name recognition much. Further, with his particular opponents in this race, the fundraising and support that would ordinarily be realized by an endorsed candidate will not be as available to Kelley. Luther, an experienced fundraiser, will give Kelley a run for his money (pun intended), though with such a short timeframe money's impact will be minimal. Swanson, on the other hand, has Mike Hatch's backing and is assured of some of the institutional support that he has enjoyed. However, none of it matters without name recognition. Here is where Luther has the clearest and most important advantage: as a former U.S. Congressman, he has a natural constituency whose size is unrivaled by that of Kelley, who represents a relatively small number of people, and Swanson, who doesn't represent anyone at all.

Had I posted this weekend, I would have been on the no-endorsement bandwagon, for the sole reason that this whole affair has futher weakened the already-questionable power of the DFL endorsement. With the extremely short time between the SCC meeting and the primary, Luther and Swanson not competing, and with Kelley's chances on the 12th not much above 1 in 3, an endorsement just didn't make enough of a splash in the race to make it worthwhile. Regardless, it has been made, and we'll see how much it helps Kelley on Sep. 12th. Remember to get out and vote, whether it's for Kelley or for ABK. If I have one, I'll write up an endorsement of my own in early September.

UPDATE: Here's some evidence that Kelley won't enjoy some of that support that he otherwise might. What is Hatch thinking?

Technorati Tags: MN-AG Steve Kelley Bill Luther Lori Swanson Mike Hatch

Bush to Be Sued by Congress

2006-07-24T23:17:00.000-07:00

Hey, anybody can have a bad year (or five)...

Unforgivable

2006-07-22T21:12:00.000-07:00

I've decided to join the staff of Anti-Strib after the paper's unforgivable omission of this blog from its "up-and-coming" sampling of blogs. You'll see my posts there starting soon.

"Karl and MDE"

2006-07-21T15:11:00.000-07:00

Karl and MDE: BFFs.

Hard to be surprised. Karl Rove and MDE are political operatives right out of the same mold. They've both risen through the Republican ranks with slimy, sleazy politics where the only objective is disgusting your own voters just a little less than you disgust the opposition's. To them, winning is the only thing, even when it comes at the cost of the greater good.

Technorati Tags: Karl Rove Michael Brodkorb MDE MN-06

Sen. Dick Day in REALLY Hot Water

2006-07-13T12:47:00.000-07:00

Right after I finished reading the Winona Daily News article about Sen. Dick Day's staff's illegal smear tactics against SD28 candidate Steve Drazkowski, I checked to see if there had been any action on Drazkowski's Fair Campaign Practice complaint. There has been.

For those who aren't up on this stuff (which I have to assume is everyone), once you file a complaint with the Office of Administrative Hearings, the office makes a determination of a "prima facie" (on first appearance) violation - in other words, whether or not there's enough evidence presented up front to proceed with the process. If the office determines that there is such evidence, the case goes forward, if not it is dismissed. A big chunk of the complaints with the OAH seem to be rejected immediately for one reason or another, particularly because there's no prima facie evidence. However, Drazkowski's complaint against Daniel Nelson, one of Sen. Day's staffers, has been found to present a prima facie violation and will be heard by the OAH. The three-judge panel that will hear the case within 90 days could impose a fine of as much as $5,000 or refer the case for criminal prosecution. Of course, I will continue keeping up and posting on this matter.

Sen. Day could find himself in a world of hurt for this one. If he directed Nelson to send out the flier, his career, or at the very least his position as Senate Minority Leader, could be over. I'll be awaiting the results of this case. It could be the perfect example of the culture of corruption right in our backyard.

The OAH's order itself can be found here.

Technorati Tags: Dick Day Daniel Nelson Steve Drazkowski Minnesota Senate Winona Wabasha Owatonna

Sen. Day Article

2006-07-13T12:42:00.000-07:00

Courtesy of Joy Stevens, the Winona Daily News now has an article about the Dick Day/Daniel Nelson/Steve Drazkowski fiasco.

Technorati Tags: Dick Day Daniel Nelson Steve Drazkowski Minnesota Senate Winona Wabasha Owatonna

Day Complaint Followup

2006-07-08T14:15:00.000-07:00

I have been absolutely unable to find anything other than the Post-Bulletin story covering this affair. I have checked Wabasha, Cannon Falls, Winona, and Owatonna papers and none has any mention of it. If you know of any media coverage of this at all, please contact me. I'll be keeping tabs on the appropriate website to watch for a resolution of the complaint, but there's no telling how long that may take.

Technorati Tags: Dick Day Daniel Nelson Steve Drazkowski

The Company You Keep

2006-07-08T13:57:00.000-07:00

Hastert, Cheney, and Rove. Is there any reason for one single moderate in the 6th CD to vote for Michele Bachmann?

Technorati Tags: Dennis Hastert Dick Cheney Karl Rove Michele Bachmann MN-06

Happy 4th

2006-07-04T10:45:00.000-07:00

I won't wax poetic, I'll just ask you to think today about what America means to you, and to think about why that's worth defending.

Yowling

2006-07-03T23:42:00.000-07:00

Go read this.

Speechless

2006-07-02T02:42:00.000-07:00

Literally cannot find the words.

Sen. Day's Office in Hot Water

2006-07-01T13:47:00.000-07:00

Sen. Dick Day's office has been bad. Very bad. I just got tipped off to this.

Steve Drazkowski is a GOP candidate for Senate in SD28 (Red Wing and surrounding areas). Earlier in the cycle, he was charged with fifth-degree domestic assault for hitting his teenage daughter, but he was aquitted. Turns out that Daniel Nelson, a staffer for Sen. Day, sent out slanderous mailings about the charges in order to weaken Drazkowski's bid for the GOP endorsement (he lost, though he'll be in the primary against GOP endorsed Steve Wilson). Unfortunately for Sen. Day and Mr. Nelson, this is apparently a violation of the Fair Campaign Practices Act.

Oops.

A reader sent me the story, but you can't access the article as it's behind a paywall. I'll post a link as soon as there's a free article available, and I'll work on getting more details as well.

UPDATE/NOTE: A reader prompts me to point out that I'm not suggesting that Mr. Drazkowski actually did hit his daughter - only that he was charged with doing so. I have no information on his politics or his strength as a candidate aside from this incident.

Technorati Tags: Dick Day Steve Drazkowski SD28

Scandal

2006-06-30T11:25:00.000-07:00

And the pertinent question, can the Bush Administration stay away from it for five minutes? This guy would have been the highest ranking security official in the country.

Technorati Tags: culture of corruption Bernie Kerik George W. Bush

Failures

2006-06-29T20:33:00.000-07:00

From today's "GOP Newsline" e-mail, bolded emphasis mine:

Despite Budget Surplus, Liberals Propose $2 Billion Tax Increase

Last week, 203 wealthy Minnesotans signed a full-page ad in the Star Tribune calling for a $2 billion tax increase asking the "state to raise $2 billion for various initiatives by increasing the state's tax burden for high-salary earners." (Myron Metcalf, "Some Rich Minnesotans Want To Pay More Taxes," Star Tribune, June 21, 2006)

Further, under their plan, "(s)tate taxes for anyone making less than $45,000 would not increase and the rates would vary for everyone in between [$45,000 and $250,0000]. " (Myron Metcalf, "Some Rich Minnesotans Want To Pay More Taxes," Star Tribune, June 21, 2006)

The signers of the ad include such liberal luminaries as Joel Kramer, Mike Ciresi, Mark Andrew, Ted Mondale, Teresa Daly, David Lillehaug, and Rebecca Yanish, all failed DFL candidates for office.

Governor Pawlenty responded to the ad, reminding the signers that Minnesota has a budget surplus, double-digit revenue growth, and that Minnesota has recently moved out of the top ten in the nation in taxes.

He also encouraged them to put their money where their mouthes are and challenged the ad signers to "....send checks to the state's Finance Department. In return, Pawlenty said in a news release, he would pose with each for a commemorative photo and issue them certificates of appreciation." (Mark Brunswick, "Pawlenty Encourages Ad Signers: Send A Check," Star Tribune, June 23, 2006)

Former VPOTUSes and U.S. Attorneys really suck. Losing an election once in your life* makes you a real joke, doesn't it? This isn't a big deal at all, but it just annoys me that the GOP will say anything for a little attention, no matter how ad hominem, misleading, or hypocritical.

*Does not apply to any Republican, especially Norm Coleman or John Kline.

Technorati Tags: Ron Carey MN GOP Ted Mondale David Lillehaug Mike Ciresi Norm Coleman John Kline

Thank God

2006-06-29T13:06:00.000-07:00

Because the Supreme Court has "voided Bush's 'blank check'". To read a little more about what this means for the entire Bush agenda, check out SCOTUSblog.

Technorati Tags: SCOTUS Guantanamo Bay gitmo George Bush blank check

Toss-Up

2006-06-28T23:27:00.000-07:00

I don't really understand why a lot of rankings call Minnesota the best Republican pick-up opportunity, a "toss-up" (such as here today, though I don't know if this was an upgrade or a downgrade) and so on. Doesn't an 8 point lead in polls, along with the fact that Mark Kennedy has been playing defense for the entire cycle so far, buy the Klobuchar campaign some love? This seat should be a solid "lean Democrat", upgraded to "strong Democrat" once the race solidifies in September or so.

Oh, speaking of analysis, David Kirchner, also known as "The Analyst", is leaving blogging, perhaps permanently. Good luck to David in his new job, and I hope that he'll return to blogging soon.

Technorati Tags: MN-Sen Amy Klobuchar Mark Kennedy The National Review

Paying Attention Redux

2006-06-28T22:21:00.000-07:00

I'm still working on a couple of pieces here (yeah, I know, sorry) but NSP got linked to today by both Slate and From the Roots (the DSCC's blog). After the semi-vacation from blogging, getting linked to by big names is a good incentive to stay with it.

Paying Attention

2006-06-28T01:24:00.000-07:00

Attention paid to Minnesota bloggers is good, yes? Yes? Maybe. Sort of. Keep reading.

Two separate instances of this. First, MDE/Power Line.

This is the less exciting part. MDE and Power Line have been relentlessly pushing Rep. Keith Ellison's ties to less-than-upstanding groups and people, though these ties are mostly long in the past. Though the MSM has generally paid little attention, I think that Brodkorb and the Power Tools are beginning to raise some awareness. Okay. Good for them, I suppose.

The other instance is MN Publius' discovery of Rep. Mark Kennedy's scrubbing of Pres. Bush's name from his campaign website, presumably to distance himself as best he can from Bush's sinking ship. So far, Daily Kos, Hotline, and Politicalwire have picked up the story, and there is now a Star Tribune article. I love this; it has made Kennedy look desperate and dishonest all across the country, and best of all, it has put the Republican machine on defense. Unfortunately, however, I've received word from the MN Publius gentlemen that the Strib got the article significantly wrong. I have no idea, because I haven't been keeping particularly close tabs on this developing story, but they are preparing a response. I'll update this post with more information on that response later in the day.

UPDATE: MyDD, too. Okay, here we go. MN Publius has put up a ridiculously detailed and exhaustive response to the Ron Carey press release that pretty much blows his claims out of the water. Here is a little bit about the Star Tribune's misreporting of the story. The work that the MN Publius guys did to get this story is fantastic, and it deserves better than to be spun by the Star Tribune itself. Anyways, this is a perfect example of how blogs can influence the debate; with one post, MN Publius put the GOP on defense and gave the Klobuchar campaign a little more ammunition to work with. Congratulations, guys.

Technorati Tags: Keith Ellison Mark Kennedy MN-05 MN-Sen Star Tribune MN Publius

Flag Burning

2006-06-28T00:01:00.000-07:00

I'm pretty upset about the flag burning amendment vote today in the Senate. Even though it failed by one vote, the very closeness of the vote is deeply troubling. Small margins aren't unusual in the Senate, but only one vote just isn't enough for comfort. It's very disappointing that 66 United States Senators don't seem to understand exactly what the flag means, what it represents. Flag burning is a disgusting, obscene, and unpatriotic act - but in our great country, legal protection of such things is not optional. Anything else violates the spirit of the Constitution. Free speech may often seem inconvenient, because no one wants to hear, for example, Nazi lies and propaganda, but it is the bedrock of democracy and it hurts to see it so narrowly upheld today in a place that ought to know better. People often don't think much of free speech until it's they who need it.

Take a look at the roll call; some of the votes are surprising, and few pleasantly. One of the most unpleasant is retiring, nothing-left-to-lose Sen. Mark Dayton's yea vote. Even more disgusting is that Sen. Dayton is a cosponsor of the amendment, and has been for a year. I've said it before, but Dayton has lost my support. November can't come soon enough so that we can replace him with Amy Klobuchar. Also interesting are some key senators' sometimes unexpected votes: Bennett (R) nay, Biden nay, Chafee (R) nay, Dorgan nay, Feinstein yea, Lieberman nay, Menendez yea, McConnell (R) nay, Reid yea. My respect, if not my support, for some of those nay voters has increased, while both my respect and my support for all of the yea voters has decreased. Flag burning is the ultimate unimportant wedge issue - how many people are troubled by it on a daily basis? - thus many of the yea votes are pure pandering, and for the Democrats in particular, it represents both a lack of principles and bad politics. By voting yea, Dems in tough races wanted to help increase Republican turnout by putting a flag burning amendment on the ballot? What the hell is wrong with them?

As a side note, did you know that the version of the amendment that passed the House was chief sponsored by Duke Cunningham? That should say something about the whole matter.

Technorati Tags: flag burning amendment MN-Sen Mark Dayton Duke Cunningham

Hatch/Dutcher

2006-06-25T00:33:00.000-07:00

It's news that's as old as the hills by now, but Judi Dutcher is going to be Mike Hatch's running mate.

To be honest, Dutcher's name means very little to me. I may simply not be old enough, but if her name doesn't mean much to me, Hatch may not have done much for the general public with this choice.

Technorati Tags: Mike Hatch Judi Dutcher MN-Gov

Republican Nightmares

2006-06-22T09:41:00.000-07:00

Tim Walz and Amy Klobuchar are going to end Gil Gutknecht and Mark Kennedy's careers.

Walz was profiled yesterday in City Pages, an article which is required reading for anyone looking to keep up with the horserace in the 1st. Walz is seriously challenging Rep. Gil Gutknecht for the first time in a decade, and it seems that Gutknecht's campaign skills are rusty. Walz has been getting tons of attention while Gutknecht remains nearly invisible in the media. That'll hurt this year; Walz will paint Gutknecht as a Bushie (which he is, but that's beside the point) and without some loud denials Gutknecht runs the very serious risk of losing. In my humble opinion, Gutknecht is not taking this challenge nearly as seriously as he ought to. Tim Walz is a great candidate with a real shot at winning the 1st CD: if you are able, please do something to support him, whether it be volunteering, donating, or even just telling your friends and neighbors.

Amy Klobuchar is another Republican killer. Despite the fact that the campaign season is not yet in full swing, new Zogby polling shows her 7.4 points ahead of Mark Kennedy. Mind you, this is before most voters know the real dirt on Kennedy: a voting record that screws the average Minnesotan. It'll take a lot of work before November, but it's looking more and more like Ted will remain the only Kennedy in the Senate. It's a good thing, too, because Minnesota can't afford a Sen. Mark Kennedy.

Pres. Bush sure does have coattails: right back to auctioneering for Gutknecht and accounting for Kennedy. Bush is polling at 34% in Minnesota these days, and for the Congressmen from the 1st and 6th, the formula is simple: Gil Gutknecht=Mark Kennedy=George W. Bush.

UPDATE: Rochester Post-Bulletin editor Jay Furst says

It's a good story and maybe Democrats have reason for optimism, but a "Republican nightmare"? This is perhaps the only story in any media on Planet Earth to suggest that incumbent Republican Rep. Gil Gutknecht is (or should be) losing sleep this year.

Perhaps the reason that it's the only media reporting on it is because Furst doesn't run a paper with inquisitive political reporting. Shouldn't the Post-Bulletin, inside the 1st CD, be reporting on Walz, rather than the City Pages?

Technorati Tags: MN-01 MN-Sen

Races to Watch

2006-06-21T14:22:00.000-07:00

Minntelect and Pollytick have released lists of state races to watch this year. These are both very similar to what this blogger was working on, though they're both much more conservative in the number of races they select. It's good to see these two lists, as they're both very good; check them out.

Technorati Tags: MN-Legislature

Back to Blogging

2006-06-17T14:33:00.000-07:00

It's obvious that this blog's content over the last couple of months has been abysmally thin. I wrote a while back that I was working on a long-term blogging project, and I was. Unfortunately, I wasn't putting a lot of time into that, and even less time into regular posting. Today, that project is abandoned. The project was a statewide list and analysis of races to watch, complete with predictions, à la the Cook or Rothenberg reports; unfortunately, the knowledge to do a competent and comprehensive job just wasn't there.

Thus, expect much more posting here, starting tomorrow. This blog isn't going away anytime soon.